The official price of the dollar in Colombia this Thursday, October 13 (Representative Market Rate), of $4,619.78, is the third highest record in history.
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That price represents an increase of $8.60 compared to yesterday’s rate and although at the end of the exchange day it registered a strong decrease, the dollar managed to exceed $4,666 at the beginning of operations after knowing the inflation data in the United States that it was above expectations, despite the fact that it has been declining very slowly.
Only the TRM of last October 7 of $4,627.61 and that of $4,627.46 of July 13 of this year are figures higher than the rate of this Thursday.
The minimum price of the dollar yesterday in the negotiations between the banks was $4,574 and the maximum reached $4,666.
The average price was $4,620, a figure that rises $9 compared to the representative rate of the current market.
For the financial and foreign exchange analyst Diego Rodríguez, the market is reading the inflation data from the United States that, despite the fact that it was not what he expected and came from an annual rate of 9%, continues to fall slowly.
Prices rose 8.2% in the 12 months through September, according to the CPI consumer price index released by the Labor Department. The figure shows a very slight moderation compared to 8.3% last month, but is above the 8.1% that analysts expected. It was above all the month-to-month rise in prices that showed the tenacity of inflation: the increase was once again higher than the measurement of the previous period, with 0.4% between August and September compared to a modest 0.1% between July and August. Analysts forecast a rise of 0.3%.
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some positive news
The foreign exchange analyst considers that in the midst of the data there was good news with the leases, which presented declines.
He said markets are also uneasy that the British government could back out of its tax proposal that would cut corporate taxes.
Rodríguez assured that for this Thursday “the market has the face of continuing to fall.”
And he warned that in Colombia the lack of clarity from the ministers and the president himself with his statements that generate volatility.
For his part, Diego Gómez, a specialist in the foreign exchange market at Corficolombiana, said that yesterday there was a day in which the agents took profits after knowing the inflation data in the United States, which surprised negatively on the rise and anticipates an increase of at minus 75 basis points in the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate at the November meeting.
“However, it will be important to know the tone that the members of the FOMC (committee in charge of making monetary policy decisions) of the Fed will accept in the coming days after the inflation data is known, since, although the data was higher than As expected, some important indicators in its composition, such as the average cost of rentals, have begun to decline for the first time in a long time, which could mark a change in the trend in inflation going forward”, he said.
So far in 2022, the peso has devalued against the dollar by 16.04%, that is, it has registered a rise of $638.62, and in the last 12 months the devaluation is 23.57%, which represents a rise of $881.30.
An increase almost than anticipated
The markets discount that the Fed will raise its interest rates in the two meetings it has until the end of the year by another 75 basis points, to 4.4%.
Other elements that have been put in the balance is the expectation that the world will experience a sharp slowdown in the economy and what this represents for the winds of global recession.
already even The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated this week a critical outlook for next year.
He has even assured that it is possible to see a timid growth of the world economy, around 1% and with the possibility that several countries present falls in their economic activity.