Analysts and economic agents who answered the Survey of Economic Expectations of the Central Bank (BCU) expect the Uruguayan economy to grow 4.7% this year, according to the median of the 23 responses received by the monetary authority in its July survey. This represents an increase of one tenth versus the 4.6% that had been projected in June.
For their part, for 2023 the agents project that the GDP will expand 3%, while for 2024 that forecast stands at 2.6%, without changes compared to the June survey.
In the last Rendering of Accounts, the economic team projected a GDP rise of 4.8% for this year3.1% for 2023 and 3.2% for its last calendar year of management (2024).
For its part, with regard to the exchange rate, agents expect the dollar to close the year at $42.10. This value is just 10 hundredths below Tuesday’s close: $41.99. As usual, in this variable the range predicted by the agents is much wider than in other variables. There are analysts who see an exchange rate at $40.20 while others place it at $44.50.
Expectations still out of range
In the Inflation Expectations Survey, the agents maintained their forecast of an 8.6% rise in prices for the end of the year, very much in line with the 8.5% estimated by the MEF when it presented the Rendering of Accounts.
For their part, for the 24-month horizon, analysts forecast that prices will increase 6.9%, that is, above the inflationary target range of 3% to 6% that will come into effect in September of this year. This implies that the contractionary policy that the BCU is promoting by raising the interest rate has not yet managed to anchor agents’ expectations.
