The Organization of Exporting Countries Oil (OPEC) this Wednesday kept its forecast unchanged on the increase in world consumption of crude oil in 2025, 1.4% year-on-year, and predicted that in 2026 it will be similar, 1.36%.
“The growth forecast world oil demand remains at a healthy 1.45 million barrels per day (mbd), unchanged from the estimate made a month ago, the OPEC in its monthly report on the oil market.
The document amounts to 103.75 mbd the total crude oil burned in 2024, a level that is expected to rise to 105.20 mbd this year.
This last figure is more optimistic than the 104 mbd on average that the International Energy Agency (AIE), after an increase of 1.05 mbd, also clearly lower than the 1.45 mbd expected by the OPEC.
After this increase, it foresees another 1.43 mbd in 2026, so that the total consumption it would reach an average of 106.63 mbd.
The organization’s experts base their estimates on a favorable outlook for the world economic situationwith economic growth of 3.1 and 3.2% in this and next year.
“The forecast assumes that the normalization of inflation during 2026, contributing to new adjustments to monetary policies in the main economies,” they highlight.
They also have a solid increase in fuel consumption for transportation, “with further expansion in air travel as flights, both international and domestic, continue to increase.”
Offer from your rivals
Regarding supply, they hope that the offer of its rivals increase in total to 54.23 mbd this year, 1.11 mbd more than in 2024, an annual increase that would be repeated in 2026.
The additional production It will come mainly from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina, the document predicts, while reducing, in the face of growing rival production, the volume of crude oil that the world anticipates will require from its member countries and their allies.
- For 2025, this demand is estimated at 42.5 mbd, 100,000 bd less than calculated a month ago and 300,000 bd higher than the 2024 level.
- By 2026, it means that the twelve members of OPEC and its 10 allies, including Russia, should produce 42.7 mbd.
In December, the group of 22 countries pumped 40.65 million barrels daily (mbd), 14,000 less than the previous month, according to estimates based on independent institutes, published in the report. EFE