The first half of 2022 has been characterized by high volatility in international markets and in the case of Colombia additional elements have been combined, among which are the electoral process and the hostile purchases with public offers of acquisition (OPAs) of the Gilinski Group on companies of the Antioqueño Business Group (GEA).
Thus, the MSCI Colcap index, the main stock of the Colombian Stock Exchange, this year has risen 8.21%, although it has registered appreciations above 15% and has managed to fall to a little over 0.1%.
As a natural factor to the situation of the takeover bid season for GEA companies, some of these companies are the ones that register the highest valuations in the market.
Bancolombia’s stock is one of them and so far this year it has registered a valuation of 21.01% to $42,650 per share.
This is followed by the action of Grupo Sura, one on which three takeover bids have been advanced, and whose valuation in the Colombian Stock Exchange market is 22% up to $36,000.
Next is Preferential Banco AV Villas, with a gain of 23.12% up to $4,500 and then there is Preferential Bancolombia with 24% up to $39,600.
And that of Nutresa, the conglomerate of food processing companies, the first on which the first takeover bid was launched, on November 10, 2021, has risen 35.95% to $38,700 per share.
All securities have come to post much higher valuations, but volatile market conditions have led to downward price adjustments.
On the other hand, among some of the securities with the greatest losses in value are the Corficolombiana Preferential with a drop of 19% to $18,850, Preferential Aval with a drop of 20.77% to $838, Grupo Aval, with a drop of 20.99% to $822, El Cóndor with 24.07% to $615 and Acerías Paz del Río with 39.24% to $8.50.
According to Germán Cristancho, manager of Economic Research and Strategy at Davivienda Corredores, this year “We have been in a volatile environment, but in general it has been positive, since there is a mixture of variables such as the good behavior of the economy, high profits of the companies and among them those of the Colcap index, which can rise above 20% , perhaps 22%, and on the other hand, the postponement or lack of resolution of the war in Ukraine, which has meant that the expectation of higher prices for raw materials has made Latin America receive investment flows better than in several of the emerging Asian countries.
In any case, he assures that the surveys applied by the firm to professional or institutional investors show that 78% say that the political factor is the most important when making investment decisions.
Cristancho assures that the country’s risk premium will decrease once the presidential election is over, “But it will be important to know which government team will be elected and how their inaugural speech behaves compared to what they have said in the campaign.”
For Daniela Triana, an expert in equities at Acciones & Valores, there are several factors that affect confidence at an international level, but Colombia benefits from the high price of oil, although with the aim of controlling inflation, the rise in interest rates may affect actions.