Retail trade in the state of São Paulo should grow 5% in December, according to estimates by the Federation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo (FecomercioSP). If you confirm this projection, São Paulo retail should reach BRL 91 billion in sales in the month of Christmas, BRL 4.2 billion more than in 2020.
For FecomercioSP, the main factor influencing these numbers will be the payment of the thirteenth salary and its greater impact on Christmas shopping, considered decisive by the entity since it will be 57.5% higher than that registered at the end of 2020. The greater offer of credit, the stores operating normally and the greater circulation of unrestricted consumers due to the covid-19 pandemic should interfere with this index.
According to the analysis of FecomercioSP, with the injection of the 13th salary following pre-pandemic standards, R$9.5 billion of the amount received should be destined for consumption at this time of year. That’s BRL 3.1 billion more in the economy, which means an increase of 47% compared to the previous year, accounting for 74% of the expected monthly increase of BRL 4.2 billion compared to December 2020.
“Two factors justify the biggest injection of the tenth salary. Firstly, the significant expansion of the contingent of workers with a formal contract and, secondly, the fact that retirees and pensioners, in addition to a significant portion of employees in the private sector, last year received the full payment of up to half of the year, in order to mitigate the fall in income caused by the stoppage of several productive segments and the rise in unemployment”, analyzes FecomercioSP.
The organization also highlighted that even with the positive expectation, there are factors that can negatively influence this perspective, such as the strong increase in the current level of indebtedness of families, which, together with high inflation and unemployment, lead to a reduction in the mass of income.
Sectors
Among the retail activities, the apparel segment is the one that should have the best sales movement of the month, with an estimated growth of 28%, compared to December 2020, when it showed a 22% retraction, the worst performance among all at the time . Supermarkets (-2%), pharmacies and perfumeries (-3%) and furniture and decoration stores (-5%) should be the negative highlights this year.
