“The performance of the Mexican economy will continue to be influenced by the behavior of the pandemic, both nationally and internationally,” the Central Bank said.
The document indicates that inflation will maintain its general reduction, but that it will be until the third quarter of 2023 when “it converges to levels close” to the 3% goal.
For 2022, Banxico estimates employment growth of between 560,000 and 760,000 jobs and for 2023 a variation of between 510,000 and 710,000 jobs.
The dependency led by Victoria Rodríguez identifies four risks for the country’s growth in the following months:
1. That the persistence of the COVID pandemic leads to a less vigorous economic recovery.
2. That the problems of bottlenecks in supply chains at a global level that have generated shortages of supplies for some sectors in Mexico are prolonged or intensified. In the same way, that the pandemic leads to higher input and production costs in various sectors of the economy.
3. That additional episodes of volatility are observed in international financial markets that affect financing flows for emerging economies.
4. That the recovery of investment spending is lower than expected or insufficient to support the process of reactivating the economy and long-term growth. In this sense, that a possible reorganization of the electricity sector gives rise to a less favorable environment for investment.
