"Bad augury": Inflation could reach 10% annually in 2022, says ANPEC

The ANPEC carried out a monitoring to know the increase in prices, mainly in those of the basic basket. And he estimates that food inflation in June was 11.7%. However, in its document “A History in Reverse: Inflation Grows NOT GDP”, the ANPEC predicts a food inflation of 15%.

In July it is expected that inflation in 2022 will grow to 8.1%, a bad omen, surely general inflation will exceed 10% and food inflation will be around 15% due to the zero growth that we will have

National Alliance of Small Businesses (ANPEC)

At an annual rate, headline inflation stood at 7.88%, a level higher than the 7.72% of the last fortnight of May. These data are a “bad omen” for ANPEC and for this reason it forecasts that annual inflation in Mexico will be 8% in the second half of the year and that it will reach its zenith at the end of 2022, with a rate of 10%.

It is a much higher estimate than the expectations of the specialists consulted by the Bank of Mexico, which was forced to raise the interest rate by 75 base points, to place it at 7.75%.

If the inflationary pressures observed in the first fortnight of June extend to the second fortnight of the month and during July, the inflation forecast towards the end of the year may be revised upwards to 8.0%.

Grupo Financiero BASE, report on Inflation Expectations

The Bank of Mexico’s inflation expectations were adjusted upwards after an increase higher than expected was announced in the first half of June. Thus, it expects that, in the third quarter of 2022, inflation will reach an average annual rate of 8.1% and that it will drop in the last part of the year to 7.5%.

Banco BASE, for its part, also forecasts that annual inflation will be 8.22% in August this year, but it estimates that, from this point on, it will go down until it reaches its lowest level in November, with an estimated rate of 7.38%. %.

Inflation and low incomes will indebt the poor

“Food inflation in the first fortnight of June reached 11.7%, 7 out of 10 Mexicans do not have the necessary resources to buy the products of the basic basket and 2 out of 10, to some degree, face hunger every week of month,” ANPEC said.

In addition, he warned that the rise in credit is putting “in check millions of Mexicans who have leveraged their food consumption by relying on credit cards.”

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