The trade balance with Brazil closed 2021 with a surplus of US $ 66 million against a deficit of US $ 592 million for 2020, and the commercial flow exhibited a strong rebound, totaling US $ 23,931 million, 45.4% higher than the previous year marked by the pandemic, according to the Abeceb consultant.
In 2021, exports to Brazil reached US $ 11,949 million, which represented an increase of 51.3% against 2020 and 12.2% against 2019; and imports accumulated US $ 11,883 million (+ 40% year-on-year against 2020 and + 21.4% against 2019).
By 2022, expectations for international trade “are not as encouraging as in 2021, something that will undoubtedly affect bilateral trade as well”, they estimated from Abeceb.
The reasons are the slowdown in world growth, the Fed rate hike along with the normalization of monetary policy in most countries and the incipient risk of a resurgence of the pandemic with new variants.
This accompanied by their respective complications in production (supply bottlenecks, lack of inputs) are some of the factors that could reduce international trade flows.
These factors could be deepened for bilateral trade given the slowdown in the growth of both economies (including a possible recession in Brazil), the high political uncertainty (electoral year in Brazil and agreement with the IMF in Argentina) and other aspects, predicts the Abeceb consultant.
In December, bilateral trade remained at high levels and allowed the year to close with a slightly positive balance: bilateral trade with Brazil reached US $ 2,373 million (+ 49.8% compared to December 2020 and + 46.3% with respect to to Nov-2019) consolidating a recovery after two years of sharp falls.
For its part, the trade balance reached the fourth consecutive month of surplus, reaching US $ 96 million (in December 2020 it was -US $ 19 million), which made it possible to achieve a positive annual balance.
Regarding imports, in December they totaled US $ 1,139 million and were the highest in all of 2021, showing a year-on-year rise of 42% and a monthly increase of 8.7%.
Therefore, Abeceb concludes, “although 2021 was a year that showed good performance in bilateral trade flows and allowed Argentina to achieve a surplus, the story would not be the same for 2022, a year in which internal and external obstacles – predicts the consultancy – would lead to a moderation in trade flows. ”
