With favorable weather in most grain-producing regions in the country, the national harvest could reach 291.1 million tons in the 2021/22 season, as revealed by a survey released today (9) by the National Supply Company (Conab).
If the forecast is confirmed, the volume to be harvested will be 38.3 million tons higher, compared to the previous cycle, which represents an increase of 15.1%.
Conab recalls that, in November this year, a large volume of rain was recorded, surpassing the average in several locations, mainly in the Southeast, Midwest and Matopiba (a region formed by mostly cerrado areas in the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), which favors the development of 1st harvest crops. However, in the south of the country, the rain recorded was not enough to reach the average in a large part of the region.
According to the company, soy and corn follow as the two main products that pull the good result. For the oilseed, an expansion of 3.7% in the area to be sown is expected, reaching 40.3 million hectares. Yield tends to remain close to that obtained in the previous crop, currently estimated at 3,539 kg/ha. With that, a harvest of 142.8 million tons is expected, a performance that keeps the country as the world’s largest producer of soy.
In the case of corn, informs Conab, the expectation of growth is 34.6% in total production, with an estimated volume of 117.2 million tons. The high percentage reflects the recovery in yields, mainly in the second crop of the cereal, which was negatively impacted in the 2020/21 cycle by the climatic adversities registered.
According to Conab, growth is also expected in the cotton planting area. The forecast is that the cultivation will take place in an area of 1.49 million hectares, resulting in an increase in production. Only for the harvest of the fiber lint is expected an increase of 10.7% compared to the 2020/21 harvest, reaching 2.6 million tons.
For beans, Conab expects an increase in production driven by the improvement in crop productivity. Even with the expectation of a smaller sown area, adding the three harvests, the legume producers should harvest 3.1 million tons. As for rice, the estimate is for the maintenance of the cultivation area with a slight drop in production of 2.5%, reaching around 11.5 million tons.
In the final stage of harvest, wheat has an estimated production of 7.8 million tons, a new record for the country.
Area
The growth in production follows the rise in the planted area. According to the state-owned company, Brazilian farmers will allocate about 72 million hectares for planting grain, including 1st, 2nd and 3rd harvest crops, an increase of 4.3% over the 2020/21 period.
External market
In relation to the foreign market, international cotton prices remain at high levels, influenced by the world’s deficit in the production of this fiber. Expectations of exports remained stable in this survey, reaching 2 million tons. The greater profitability of the product over corn may influence the decision of some producers.
According to Conab, the cereal, in turn, finds a different scenario between the domestic and foreign markets. While in the domestic scenario, prices tend to remain stable, after falling in recent weeks, international prices are on the rise, signaling concern about the adverse weather conditions in southern South America, as well as the recovery in demand by corn ethanol, mainly in the United States.
Exports in the 2020/21 harvest had a new adjustment, with shipments forecast at 19.2 million tons. For the 2021/22 cycle, a recovery in exported volumes is expected, with sales close to 36.68 million tons.
Soy also has prices close to stability in the domestic market, despite the increase in Brazilian exports. It is estimated that 85.8 tons of grain will be exported and that domestic consumption will be around 48.4 tons.
As for rice, says Conab, the product shows a devaluation in the prices paid to producers in this second half. Atypical movement for the off-season, but explained by the greater offer of the product, since in the first half of this year there was a lower volume of sales than in previous years. The perspective is that there will be a slight recovery in carryover stocks at the end of the 2021/22 harvest, estimated at 2.4 million tons.
*With information from Conab.
