Since September of last year, the Banco de la República has increased 4.25 percentage points your interest rate of reference and although the transmission process towards the cost of the credits that the banks disburse does not take place immediately, since it can take up to 16 months, interest increases in some of the modalities are already appreciated up to almost three percentage points.
(Read: Markets accentuate general losses due to Fed hikes).
This happens in the middle of a process of fstrong credit growth, which according to the Banco de la República, in March was 14%. According to analysts, it will begin to moderate.
According to the data provided to the Financial Superintendence, based on the report of all entities that disburse credits, at the end of March the average rate charged by entities on consumer loans, without credit cards, was 17.70%, a figure higher by 2.25 percentage points compared to the average they charged last September, the month in which it was at 15.45%. Compared to a year ago, the difference is 2.39 percentage points, when the figure was 15.31%.
Regarding the cost of credit cards for natural persons, the average interest paid by customers last March was 24.83%, that is, 2.42 percentage points above what was in September 2021 when entities they received an average of 22.41%. Compared to March 2021, the difference is 2.14 percentage points, since in that month the average rate was 22.69%.
In microcredit, the average rate charged by establishments in the third month of this year was 34.09%, that is 2.53 percentage points higher than in September, the month in which the average was 31.56%, and 1.38 points higher than a year ago when the average rate was 32.71%.
For its part, the modality in which, on average, an increase in cost has been most appreciated is ordinary commercial, since at the end of the third quarter it reached 14.19%, that is, 2.79 percentage points higher than September 2021 , month in which it was at 11.40% and compared to a year ago the difference is 2.46 percentage points higher, since it reached 11.73% in March 2021.
will stop growing
Guillermo Sinisterra, professor of Economics at the Javeriana University says that despite the rate of the Banco de la República “it has tripled between September 2021 and last April, from 1.75% to 6%”, the rise is not transferred in the same magnitude to credit.
Remember that in the allocation of credits, entities take into account several factors such as the implications of risk, the intermediation margin and not only what it costs the bank.
(Read: Fed rate hike will raise the price of the dollar in Colombia).
Sinisterra considers that after the rise of 4.25 percentage points In the monetary policy rate there is no agreement on how long the transmission to the economy takes, although the Issuer says that it takes between eight and 16 months.
A recent presentation by Asobancaria mentions that even 100 basis points remain to complete the current rate hike cycle, the placement rate would be expected to increase an additional 1.68 percentage points this year, reaching 16.41%.
Arnoldo Casas, Director of Investments at Credicorp Capital, says that in the midst of the normalization of monetary policy, in the credit channel, banks implement the Basel III agreement, which has generated competition for resources, especially in terms of more than one year. , which has caused that by capturing longer-term they have to raise CDT rates.
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