The Ministry of Economy raised the trade surplus projection (exports minus imports) for this year from US$ 79.4 billion to US$ 111.6 billion. According to the ministry, the appreciation of commodities (primary goods with international prices) resulting from the war between Russia and Ukraine justified the revision of the estimate.
“The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an increase in prices and generates expectations of higher exported value,” said Herlon Brandão, Undersecretary for Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics at the Ministry of Economy.
According to the undersecretary, in addition to the increase in international prices, there has been an increase in demand for Brazilian raw materials after the beginning of the conflict. “There is growing demand for Brazilian products at higher prices, which will increase export earnings,” he added.
If the forecast is confirmed, this will be the largest trade surplus since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. The positive balance of US$ 111.6 billion represents almost double the record surplus of US$ 61.2 billion recorded in the year past.
Every three months, the Ministry of Economy reviews the projections for the trade balance. The estimate for exports in 2022 jumped from US$ 284.3 billion forecast in January to US$ 348.8 billion. For imports, projections went from US$ 204.9 billion to US$ 237.2 billion. Forecasts are also record highs for these parameters.
Official projections are much more optimistic than the market. The latest edition of the Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a trade surplus of US$ 65 billion this year.
impacts
Despite the improvement in the trade balance, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is having an impact on Brazil’s trade with the two countries. In March, Brazilian sales to Ukraine fell by 59% in terms of values compared to the same month in 2021. Some products, such as soybeans, had their flow completely interrupted and were not exported to the eastern European country. Ukraine’s imports fell by 49%.
In relation to Russia, there was a drop in the flow of goods, but rising prices ensured an increase in traded values. In March, the value of Brazilian exports to Russia rose 54%, while the value of imports rose 71%, pressured by chemical fertilizers, an item of which Russia is one of the main global producers.
“We saw a sharp drop in trade flows to Ukraine in March. The increase in trade with Russia is due to higher prices. There is a reduction in quantity in the total imported of 9.6%”, said the undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy.
