In short
- Flávio Bolsonaro took 56.1 million votes in Brazil’s first presidential round on Sunday 4 October 2026, against 53.8 million for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- Because no candidate won an outright majority, the two will meet in a second round set for 25 October.
- The Liberal Party led by the Bolsonaro family rose from 15 Senate seats to 28, and Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro were both elected to the Senate.
- Polling institute Datafolha put the rejection rate of both candidates at 45% on the eve of the vote, while one poll showed 49% disapproval of Lula’s government against 48% approval.
- Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, was sentenced to 27 years in prison in 2025 over an attempted coup d’état.
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday 4 October 2026, taking 56.1 million votes against 53.8 million for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. No candidate reached an outright majority, so the two will meet again in a second round later this month.
How large was Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula?
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and had never run for the presidency before. Pre-election surveys had shown Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro contesting the race neck and neck, and the actual margin was wider than that. Lula, 80, of the Workers’ Party, now needs an unprecedented result: no candidate who trailed after the first round has ever overturned the deficit in Brazil’s second round.
Why were voters dissatisfied with Lula’s government?
The polling institute Datafolha put both candidates’ rejection rate at 45% on the eve of the vote. One survey cited in coverage showed 49% of voters disapproving of Lula’s government and 48% approving, a level analysts said no re-election-seeking president had carried before. The discontent persisted despite official unemployment of around 5.3%, its lowest recorded level, and average income at its highest since records began. Lula raised the Bolsa Família welfare payment by 15% and banned online gambling, legalised in 2018 and since blamed for household income losses.
What role did the Supreme Court play in the campaign?
Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned against the Brazilian Supreme Court, criticising its 2025 conviction of his father over an attempted coup d’état, after thousands of people invaded the buildings of the three branches of government in Brasília in 2023. Jair Bolsonaro received a 27-year prison sentence. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case, denies wrongdoing after police suggested that banker Daniel Vorcaro, arrested in March over an alleged financial fraud, had asked him for help avoiding arrest.
How did the Bolsonaro family fare beyond the presidency?
In the Senate elections, the Liberal Party led by the Bolsonaros rose from 15 seats to 28. Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of the former president, and another son, Carlos, were both elected to the Senate.
What happens before the runoff?
The second round is set for 25 October. Political analyst Dora Kramer, writing in Folha de S Paulo, said both candidates would have to focus their efforts on independent voters. A Lula comeback would be without precedent in Brazilian presidential elections, though analysts do not rule it out.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round with 56.1 million votes, against 53.8 million for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. No candidate reached an outright majority, so a second round will be held later in October.
When is the second round of Brazil’s presidential election?
The runoff is set for 25 October, after the first round on Sunday 4 October produced no outright majority.
How many Senate seats did the Liberal Party win?
The Liberal Party led by the Bolsonaro family rose from 15 Senate seats to 28. Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of the former president, and another son, Carlos, were both elected to the Senate.
Has a candidate ever overturned a first-round deficit in Brazil?
No. No candidate who trailed after the first round has ever gone on to win Brazil’s second round, which is the task now facing Lula.
With reporting from BBC News.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
