In short
- Flávio Bolsonaro won about 47% of valid votes in Brazil’s first round on 4 October, against roughly 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to the Superior Electoral Court.
- Neither candidate passed half of the valid votes, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October.
- Datafolha’s poll published on the Saturday before the vote, based on 4,006 interviews, gave Lula 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 42%; Quaest had the president five points ahead.
- The other four candidates — Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema — won around 8% of valid votes between them.
- Flávio Bolsonaro thanked some 56 million voters and said he did not mention his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian senator, won about 47% of valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday 4 October, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on roughly 45%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. Neither candidate passed half of the valid votes, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October.
What were the first-round results?
Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, led the count from the beginning to the end. The 4 October ballot was the contest in which Lula sought a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro. Brazilians also elected governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies, two thirds of the Senate and the state assemblies.
Did the polls predict the result?
The count ran against the final surveys. Datafolha’s poll published on the Saturday before the vote, based on 4,006 interviews, gave Lula 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 42%; Quaest had the president five points ahead in the first round. The outcome came after polls had shown Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro running neck and neck.
What did the candidates say?
“Brazil wants change,” Flávio Bolsonaro said in Brasília, thanking some 56 million voters, more than his father won in the first round in 2022. “The end of the PT era is hereby decreed,” he added. He did not mention former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup and whom his son has promised to grant an amnesty if he wins.
How did Lula respond?
Lula, 80, spoke shortly afterwards in São Paulo. “The result is often unexpected. I confess I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round,” he said. “But we have the second round, and the second round is the real test. Tomorrow we start a new campaign.” He criticised the Bolsonaro family’s “truculent biographies” and referred to links with militias and to the Banco Master case, in which Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation without formal charges.
Who else was on the ballot?
Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema won around 8% of valid votes between them. Their largely centre-right and right-wing electorate will be decisive in the runoff, along with abstention, which reached about 21% in 2022 and traditionally affects lower-income groups, Lula’s electoral base, the most. Voting passed without major incidents, aside from power cuts caused by storms at some polling stations, which did not affect the electronic voting machines.
What would a Bolsonaro victory mean for the region?
If he wins on 25 October, Flávio Bolsonaro would add Brazil to a series of right-wing victories in the region, including those of José Antonio Kast in Chile, Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru. The senator has pledged to bring the country into the Americas Shield, the Washington-backed security coalition from which Brazil is absent.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election?
Flávio Bolsonaro won about 47% of valid votes, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on roughly 45%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. Because neither passed half of the valid votes, the two go to a runoff on 25 October.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula is scheduled for 25 October.
What did the polls say before the first round?
Datafolha’s survey published on the Saturday before the vote, based on 4,006 interviews, gave Lula 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 42%, while Quaest put the president five points ahead. Flávio Bolsonaro led the count from start to finish.
Where did the votes of the other candidates go?
Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema won around 8% of valid votes between them. Their largely centre-right and right-wing electorate is expected to be decisive in the runoff, along with abstention.
With reporting from en.mercopress.com.
Stock image, not from the events described. City Skyline — Joe deSousa / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)
