The President says that economic analysts estimate low growth rates of the Mexican Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because they do not want it. The problem is that those experts are always closer to the final result than the fantastic estimates of the morning.
López Obrador says that the conditions for the Mexican economy to grow are unbeatable, which is totally far from reality, because if anyone can improve, and greatly, the conditions of trust for growth, it is precisely his regime.
For now, it is a fact that the President limited yesterday his expectation of growth to 3.5% this and the following two years. He limited himself to launching that estimate only for this 2022.
The range of 3.2 to 3.5% that López Obrador estimates for GDP expansion for this year is not that far from the expert consensus, although there are already signs of a slowdown that will have to be addressed.
The economic expectations of 2022, with 10 days to go before the end of the year, are really of little use. What has more weight is to see where the estimates are for 2023 and once for 2024.
The analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico see an expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the next year of 0.9% with a general inflation of 5.1% at the end of the year. An exchange rate in December of next year at levels of 20.80 pesos per dollar and an interbank interest rate at levels of 10.25% to end 2023.
A bad one among these expectations is that with such low economic growth, only 400,000 new formal jobs can be created. One not so good is that the public finance deficit will continue to increase during 2023, up to a negative result of 3.6% of GDP. And a good one is that expectations continue to rise that the flows of Foreign Direct Investment will continue.
Experts think the economy looks better today than it did a year ago, but most believe the business climate is going to get worse over the next six months.
In short, that is the panorama of a group of 37 experts in economic analysis, those that López Obrador accuses of being very pessimistic.
These are estimates that are not far from the rest of the forecasts of other national and foreign experts who may agree that these are not the optimal conditions for growth that the President is talking about.
It has nothing to do with the affection that financial analysts have for the President to make these calculations, it is the data that is used by those who make economic decisions to make their plans.
If the only reference were the fantastic economic figures of the morning, it would be very difficult to make the right investment decisions.
At some point in yesterday’s morning conference, the President seemed to accept that the economy would only grow 1% for the rest of his administration.
What seems like an excess of sincerity and acceptance of reality will surely be corrected soon by one of those magical growth figures that your parishioners like to hear so much.
