According to DANE figures, in August 2025 inflation in Colombia reached 5.10% in its annual variation, which represented a 0.20% rebound in relation to 4.90% reported in July this year. Given this fact, several experts in the field pointed out that this macroeconomic indicator would be maintained for this level here at the end of the year.
It may interest you: Inflation bounced and during August it exceeded 5% per year
This was highlighted, César Pabón, senior executive director of Economic Research of Corficolombiana who also mentioned that the data was in Line with the expectations they had since the firm.
“The data was very close to what we had estimated, the truth is that inflation is again above 5%, particularly 5.1%, this month marked by food. In fact, we believe that at the end of the year it will be maintained above that threshold, which is bad news for the pocket of Colombians”said Pabón.
In addition, he mentioned that this data will have a great impact on the monetary policy decision adopted by the Bank of the Republic at the end of September when the course of the interest rate is defined again.
“Of course there is the task of the Bank of the Republic that will have great challenges at the close of this year and next year, even more with the discussion that comes from the increase in the minimum wage for the closing of this year and will not give in”added the expert.
This is what awaits inflation for the rest of 2025.
Courtesy: Istock
More inflation forecasts
Meanwhile, for Alejandro Reyes, the main economist of BBVA Research Inflation in Colombia could be modeled slightly in the coming months, but agrees with a pabon that a Rubbrushing for the end of the year.
“Inflation could moderate slightly in the coming months, although it still faces a strong base effect in October that will press it again.”Said Reyes.
And with regard to the decision of the Bank of the Republic, it projects that the issuer maintains its restrictive position which left the interest rate in July of this year in July of this year.
“The result of August inflation reinforces the caution posture taken by the Bank of the Bank of the Republic in July. In addition to the rebound of total inflation, stability or slight rebound is highlighted in basic inflation with signs of some demand pressures in services such as restaurants and hotels and in some goods such as hygiene and hygiene”, Reyes added.
This is what awaits inflation for the rest of 2025.
Courtesy: Istock
What marked inflation in August?
Within the report delivered by the DANE, it is highlighted that in regards to the monthly variation, alcoholic beverages and tobacco presented a positive variation of 0.59% in August.
This item was followed by restaurants and hotels with 0.49%, health with 0.46% and Non -alcoholic foods and drinks with 0.45%.
“We see that non -alcoholic foods and drinks grew this month by 0.45% and it was the one with the greatest contribution, of that 0.19%, half 0.08% are placed by fresh fruits and within these we have the handle, pineapple, papaya, lemon and a little the avocado that have had positive variations with positive contributions. We have other foods, each of them contributing 0.01% Its derivatives, we have bread, coffee, oranges, banana and cassava that contribute to this result ”, The leader of the statistics entity pointed out.
On the contrary, the items that presented a negative variation were: recreation and culture with –0.30%, information and communication with –0.15%, transport with -0.03%and clothing and footwear with –0.02%.
“The acceleration in inflation was mainly explained by the behavior of food, with a monthly variation of 0.45% in the month of August and an annual variation of 6.13% (+119pb compared to the previous month). Among its components the increase in the annual inflation of perishables (+324pb compared to July) explained by the carrot, cassava and onion. Without food, a slight reduction in its annual variation was observed, located at 4.9% (-3pb compared to July).”, Said Alejandro Reyes, main economist of BBVA Research.
Recommended: GDP, dollar and rates: forecasts for Colombia for 2025 and 2026, according to fedesarrollo
It is worth mentioning that in August the services presented a slight decrease in their annual variation to 5.9% in August (-7pb compared to July). The result was mainly explained by leases with a reduction in its annual inflation of about 26 basic points compared to July. On the other hand, the variation in restaurant and hotels prices maintains an upward trend, located at 7.8% in August (+18pb compared to July).
Finally, he pointed out that the goods was observed a new rebound, with a higher speed than observed in the previous months. Its annual variation was 1.9% (+27pb compared to July). Among the items that explain its acceleration are home cleaning products, personal care and beer, among others.
Among the figures that stood out, it is found that the monthly data led to inflation to 0.19%, an increase against 0.00% reported in the eighth month of the previous year. Meanwhile, at the run of the year, the figure decreased by 4.33% to 4.22% between January and August 2025.
Food inflation in Colombia.
Private archive
Inflation by cities
Thus, the report shows the behavior of inflation by cities. Within these, Cúcuta is highlighted as the most expensive city in the country in August by reporting an inflation of 0.47%.
This was followed, Bucaramanga with 0.43%, Cartagena with 0.42%, Valledupar with 0.39%, Popayán with 0.38%, Armenia 0.36%and Cali 0.34%.
Recommended: Tax weight at cost of living: why inflation with the tax would be triggered
On the contrary, the cities that presented the lowest cost of living and even with negative variation were: Santa Marta with 0.35%, Ibagué with –0.08%, Riohacha with -0.03%, Villavicencio with -0.02%and Barranquilla with 0.03%.
It should be noted that this inflation result was in line with what was expected by the market. In the monthly survey of economic expectations of the Bank of the Republic the average of analysts provided that the monthly result would be 0.19%. The minimum that was projected was –0.04%, a median of 0.20%and a maximum of 0.39%.
Leidy Julieth Ruiz Clavijo
Portfolio journalist
