America Latina will be the minor region growth globally this year with 2.1%, alerts on Wednesday the World Bankwhich stands out investmenthigh indebtedness and world volatility as obstacles to its development.
In a advance of the report about America Latina and the Caribbean, the international financial organization expresses its concern for commercial tensions caused by duty Taxes by US President Donald Trump.
In this context, the World Bank forecasts a progress economic Regional of 2.1% this year and 2.4% in 2026, but a difference from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not foresee an economic contraction in Mexicobut a stagnation.
On the Dominican Republic
In a previous report the World Bank He estimated that the economies that would grow the most in the region in 2025 would be Guyana, with 12.3%, and Dominican Republic, with 4.7%.
Growth projected by countries in 2025
- In Brazil, 1.8%;
- In Argentina, 5.5%;
- In Colombia, 2.4%;
- In Chile, 2.1%;
- In Peru, 2.9%;
- In Ecuador, 1.9%;
- In Bolivia, 1.2%;
- In the Dominican Republic, 4%;
- In El Salvador, 2.2%;
- In Costa Rica, 3.5%;
- In Panama, of 3.5%;
- In Paraguay, 3.5%;
- In Nicaragua, 3.4%
- In Uruguay, 2.3%.
Decrease in Haiti
In Haiti An economic contraction of 2.2%is expected.
The panorama that derives from uncertainty
“Elderly duty and the highest levels of uncertainty commercial In a decade they prevent greater integration of the region into the United States supply chains, in addition to endangering jobs in export -related industries, “warns the World Bank.
The Agreements signed by Mexico and Mercosur with the European Union “represent a step towards the diversification of markets “, but we will have to” address a pending agenda decades ago in the areas of infrastructure, education, regulation, competence and tax policy, “he advises
In addition, he points out that the cut of the aid external to development after Trump Redumed to its minimum expression USAID, which was the largest humanitarian agency in the world, will have effects in Haiti, the conservation of the Amazon in South America and support for “Venezuelan migrants in the countries receivers “.
In it forehead fiscalthe BM points out that public spending “remains high” and deficits, “considerable.”
In general, the advances in the reduction of debt They remain limited: the relationship debt-Pib increased by 2024 to 63.3% (compared to 59.4% of 2019).
The decrease in poverty Continue advancingbut more slowly.
Estimates by 2024 indicate that poverty monetary will decrease to 24.4% of the population of America Latin and the Caribbean, from 25% in 2023. But the World Bank it foresees that inequality Keep high.
“He panorama economic World Cup has changed dramatically, marked by higher levels of uncertainty“says Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, vice president for America Latina and the Caribbean of World Bankcited in a statement.
“The countries They must emphasize their strategies and promote bold and practical reforms that promote productivity and competitiveness, “he adds.
– Artificial intelligence –
The development of intelligence artificialthat worries some sectors of advanced economies, “it is spreading more slowly” in the region, where between 26% and 38% of the employment It is exposed to this technology, says the BM.
Between 7% and 14% of jobs in America Latin could be more productive through improvements in intelligence artificialparticularly in sectors such as education, health and personal services, he maintains.
The transition Energy It also has consequences for labor demand
“He employment In sectors with relatively low greenhouse gas emissions, about 10%”and in those with high emissions, such as agriculture,” is more widespread. “
The policies of Trump They will have an effect beyond war commercial If he manages to fulfill his promise to carry out the greatest deportation of migrants in an irregular situation in the history of the United States.
Suddenly, the standards migratory more strict in the United States have redirected Flows Migratory.
“Approximately 20% of new migrants are directed to the United States”, which continues to concentrate the most, “61% to others countries of America Latina and the Caribbean and the rest to parts of Europe “, calculates the report.
The Flows of remittances They are still high in some countries: They represent more than 15% of GDP in Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti and Jamaica.
