The dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, through the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), is optimistic with the projection of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this 2022. The state institution has a forecast of between 4 and 5 % for this year.
The World Bank (WB) lowered the economic projection for the Central American country led by Ortega. In 2022 it will grow 2.9%; 2.3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) presented statistics similar to those of the World Bank, stating that Nicaragua will grow 2.5% this year.
The main cause, established by financial organizations, is Russia’s war against Ukraine, a military invasion in which the dictator Daniel Ortega has shown his support for the decisions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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“The war in Ukraine is having considerable effects on the region through rising commodity prices and weakening global growth,” the World Bank revealed.
The rise of poverty
“The outlook presents adverse risks. These include spillover effects in the region from slowing global growth, increased food insecurity and social unrest, higher-than-expected inflation, and continued financial stress,” he adds.
The report “Repercussions in Latin America and the Caribbean of the war in Ukraine: how to face this new crisis?» of ECLAC, considers that the war in Ukraine will increase the levels of poverty and food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean.
He points out that the countries of the region are facing a slowdown in economic activity, a slow and uneven recovery in labor markets, and greater inflationary pressure.
The document estimates that 7.8 million Latin Americans would be added to the 86.4 million people whose food security is already at risk and that the war against Ukraine would aggravate it if it continues on its course. In the immediate term, it is necessary to support the well-being of the poorest sectors, warns the organization.
The figures of the BCN
Nicaragua’s economy grew by 10.3% in 2021, the first year of growth after three years in a row of closing with a red balance, according to the BCN. The Nicaraguan economy had contracted by an average of -3.03% per year in the 2018-2020 period.
The GDP decreased by 2.0% in 2020, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the damage caused by hurricanes Eta and Iota, in November of that year, according to the monetary authority. In 2019 it fell 3.7% and 3.4% in 2018, due to the socio-political crisis that has affected the country for 49 months, according to the issuer.
