Braulio Carbajal
La Jornada Newspaper
Thursday, November 7, 2024, p. 5
Given the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, the review of the Mexico, United States and Canada Treaty (T-MEC) agreed for 2026 becomes delicate
even more than the renegotiation that in 2020 gave life to the current trade agreement, especially due to critical issues such as the automotive sector, specialists warned.
Another relevant issue within the trade agenda, they agreed, will be that the next president of the United States will seek to put pressure on the current disputes he faces with Mexico on a commercial level, specifically those related to the prohibition of genetically modified corn for human consumption in the territory. national.
“By having the Republican majority in both chambers, Trump has the upper hand, which means he has the power to modify the USMCA. He will try to change the chapters that – in his opinion – could harm Americans, mainly the rules of origin in the automotive sector,” said Carlos Bautista, a specialist in international trade at La Salle University.
He explained that his victory in the US presidential elections is due in part to the population’s discontent with the Biden government, which they believe is incapable of winning the trade war with China, considering that Chinese electric cars are invading
the world with low prices against which the US industry cannot compete.
A few weeks ago, during a rally, the Republican candidate pointed out that China is building huge car factories in Mexico
and They are going to sell them in the United States
so he assured that if he won the elections he would impose terrible
200 percent tariffs on cars made in Mexico to bring back
to companies.
Last Monday, during the closing of his campaign, he again threatened to impose tariffs, in this case 25 percent if Mexico does not stop the flow of migrants, criminals and drugs
.
Faced with these threats, José Ignacio Martínez, coordinator of the Laboratory of Analysis in Commerce, Economy and Business at UNAM, stressed that it is urgent to have a State policy with the White House, which has not been achieved in 200 years: A national risk agenda is needed in relation to the issues that must be addressed, so that negotiations can be carried out with political interest groups, academics, specialists and others, to clearly establish Mexico’s behavior.
.
Agricultural sector
Mexico, the United States and Canada make up the strongest agri-food trade bloc in the world, with a food self-sufficiency index of 112 percent; The three countries make up one of the most integrated and complementary chains in agri-food, especially in products such as corn, meat and dairy, generating commercial benefits for the region.
Juan Carlos Anaya, general director of the Agricultural Market Consulting Group (GCMA), highlighted that the threat of imposing tariffs by the US contradicts the fundamental principles of the T-MEC and threatens the trade integration achieved between both countries.
He explained that the tariffs would have adverse effects on both economies: Mexico would see its imports of basic grains necessary to satisfy its domestic demand become more expensive, while the US would lose a strategic market for its agricultural surpluses, directly affecting US producers and Mexican consumers.
Anaya recalled that a resolution to the controversy over transgenic corn is expected to be given this month, and in the event that the Mexican government loses, its two North American trading partners will be able to apply tariffs on the products they consider, which could affect to the agri-food sector.
