Once again the results of the economic rhythm in Colombia reaffirm that, although the country is moving in terms of growth, the disparity between sectors is maintained as a constant that leads to some months being positive and notable, but in others it is lost strength and the falls will be reaffirmed in the panorama that has been lived since the good streak of the postpandymia bonanza ended.
According to the February economy (ISE) monitoring index, published this Monday -April- by the DANE, the annual variation of this indicator for the second month was 1.77%. This data keeps the local market on a positive path but was less than 2.2% observed in the same period last year and that the surprising 2.6% that was obtained in January.
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“For the month of February 2025 the ISE in its series adjusted by seasonal effect and calendar, was 125.46, which represented a growth of 2.96% compared to the month of February 2024 (121.86),” added the DANE in his report.
On the other hand, as regards only the monthly data, The monitoring indicator to the economy adjusted by seasonal effect and calendar showed a variation of 0.25% compared to January. Likewise, in its original series, this item recorded an increase of 2.17% for the January-February 2025 period compared to the same 2024 bimester, slightly exceeding the growth of 2.07% observed in the same period of the previous year.
Ise
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The result of the February ISE was close, although it was greater than expected by Corficolombiana economists, who projected a data of 1.66%, arguing that various calendar effects influenced and that the slight fall was within the plans and projections of various study centers.
“Moderation in the rhythm of expansion is explained, in part, by a negative calendar effect, since February 2024 He was leap and this year he had a less productive activity, ”says Corfi’s report.
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Agro deflates
One of the data that most attracts attention in the DANE accounts comes from primary activities (agriculture, livestock, hunting, silviculture and fishing; exploitation of mines and quarries), which again threw negative data and remained with a more unfavorable balance that a year ago (6.7%) and completes two months in a row with negative figures if it is taken into account that in January it had remained in -0.2%.
“The index of primary activities, in its original series showed a decrease of 0.96% Regarding the month of February 2024 and as for the series adjusted by seasonal effect and calendar, for the month of February 2025 it had a growth of 0.79% compared to the month of February 2024, ”added the DANE.
Colombian economy
Bloomberg
Others that show negative data were secondary activities, which group the sectors of manufacturing industries and construction. According to the results of the statistical authority, this part of the national economy had a collapse of -3.1%, which not only erases the shy advances of January 2025 (0.5%) and December 2024 (0.4%); It is much less than -0.3% that was observed a year ago.
“As for the series adjusted by seasonal effect and calendar, for the month of February 2025 registered a decrease of 1.49% compared to the month of February 2024,” said the DANE, which ratifies that it is ratified that One of the productive sectors that has been with red figures for more than a year, is still having a bad time.
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TEistiary push
The good news in the information revealed by the DANE had to do with the tertiary activities that, discounting to public services, showed an important advance, led again by the public administration, which advanced 7.6% in this period and exceeded 5.5% in February 2024 and 6.1% of January of this year.
In general terms, it must be said that the index of tertiary activities in its original series presented an annual growth of 3.54% compared to the same month of 2024. For analysts, this result evidences a positive performance of the services sector, which groups activities such as commerce, Transportation and financial services, and that continues to show signals of dynamism at the beginning of the year.
Trade
SANTIAGO SALDARRIAGA / PORTAFOLIO
On the other hand, in the series adjusted by seasonal effect and calendar, the index of tertiary activities recorded an annual growth of 4.36% compared to February of the previous year and with respect to the monthly behavior, the adjusted index of tertiary activities grew 0.45% between January and February 2025.
With regard to public services, the DANE reported that the annual variation in the period reported was -1.9%, it is not only less than -0.4% of January, but also marks a very strong decline compared to 5.8% who had shown a year ago and delves the evil passage that the companies in this sector march.
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Look in the first quarter
Economic expectations are now concentrated in the performance of March and the balance that GDP will leave during the first quarter of the year. According to the Bancolombia Nowcast, if consumption was key in 2024, the current impulse will come from productivity, which would begin to respond to the increase in spending. The annual growth estimate for the first quarter is 2.7%, reflecting an advance against the February mobile closure.
Although the projected growth is approaching 3%, analysts warn that there is no place for triumphalisms, since sectors such as mining and industry are still lagging behind and require urgent measures to recover; while activities such as manufacturing, construction and trade would have shown a significant rebound in March, according to Bancolombia, promoting employment and providing positive signals for the economy in the short term.
