Wink to the center, new alliances and emotions: keys for Lula to come to power

A tight result and less than a month to make adjustments: a victory for Lula in the ballot against Jair Bolsonaro will depend on the bridges he builds to the center, on conquering those who abstained and on not neglecting his “emotional connection” with the popular classes analysts agree.

Leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 76, was imposed with 48% of votes to the far-right presidentwith 43%, but was far from a comfortable victory as the polls predicted.

As of this Tuesday, the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) has 26 days to reach his third term.

“It’s less about talking among ourselves and more with the voter,” Lula instructed. after a meeting with his political team on Monday in Sao Paulo. “With those who apparently don’t want us, they don’t want our games.”

“‘Lulinha peace and love’ is ready to talk to everyone,” he said, referring to the nickname he coined for himself.

Lula announced that he will work for form a “bloc of democrats” in order to fight Bolsonaro in the ballot on October 30, although his campaign to unite support beyond the left began months ago, when he chose his running mate, the center-right Geraldo Alckmin.

Along the way, he has also received support from economists and jurists from the wing considered moderate.

The “first and fundamental” thing for Lula is “not to lose the votes he has”, 57.2 million in the first round, Leandro Gabiati, director of the Dominium consulting firm, told AFP.

“There are voters who are not necessarily from the left and voted for Lula seeing him as the anti-Bolsonaro candidate,” but “if Bolsonaro improves his speech, he can eventually reduce his rejection” and “turn that vote” in his favor, he adds.

The second: search reverse the record abstention of 20.95%, equivalent to 32.7 million votesand conquer most of the 8.5 million votes that Senator Simone Tebet, third in the ballot, (4%), and Ciro Gomes (3%) added.

“He is going to have to make gestures, give in” because Bolsonaro will also seek to “seduce” those voters, says Gabiati.

Gomes, who concurred with a harsh anti-Lulista speech, gave his support to Lula on Tuesday, in line with his party, but reluctantly.

“It’s the last way out,” this 64-year-old political veteran, who was part of Lula’s cabinet between 2003 and 2006, said in a video on social media.

Tebeth She is a senator for the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and the center is key to governing in Brazil.

The MDB easily conforms to whoever is in power. He already governed with the PT until he turned his back on it in 2016 and promoted the political trial that caused the fall of Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s successor (2003-2010).

“Make the decision now because mine has already been made,” Tebet pressed the party leadership, which is fractured and has a strong Bolsonarista wing.

Although Tebet did not reveal it for now, analysts agree that he will also support Lula and that could even integrate your cabinet.

Mayra Goulart, professor of Political Science at the Federal University of Rio, believes that Tebet, a Catholic and opposed to abortion, can attract “conservative women” who are sensitive to social issues, she believes.

One of the keys to concretizing this support from more conservative fractions will be in Lula’s willingness to have a “malleable” economic proposal, considers Arthur Ituassu, professor of Political Communication at the Catholic University of Rio.

And surely you will have to negotiate your plan, which includes leftist policies such as more social investment and redistribution of the tax burden.

“That is going to be fundamental… it will be the way to conquer a volatile center,” insists Ituassu.

The markets have also expressed their preference for Bolsonaro and his liberal policies.

Finally, the leftist could correct some of his mistakes from the first round campaign.

For example, according to Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia, Lula focused “only on the achievements of previous mandates,” without proposals or “plans for the future.”

The shadow of corruption scandals when the left ruled also weighed.

But Goulart insists that more than reciting proposals, the most important thing is the “emotional connection with the popular classes”, the base of his electorate.

And “achieve an image of stability, tranquility”, which makes one dream of the prospect “of a better life”.