Among the difficult questions that journalists and the media ask every beginning of the year, there are three that are definitely answered: What are the main challenges for management? Will the country’s situation improve or worsen? How will the economy end this year? In truth, you would have to be a fortune teller to give accurate answers – especially when the government decides public policies – so, not being such, what is usually done is to resort to theory, science and, above all, experience. , to try some approximations regarding the expected economic performance, establishing assumptions or prior considerations that support the prediction towards its fulfillment.
It is not surprising that, when the press inquires about how the country will fare, the predictions of laymen and experts proliferate – sometimes with caution and, other times, like “paper holds everything”, especially for those who “always have a problem each solution” – are so harmful that they cause the population’s expectations to change for the worse, become even more negative and lead to neutralizing the effectiveness of public policies, then what occurs in the field of psychology is called “fulfilled self-prophecy”, that is, the confirmation of predictions of unwanted events that end up coming true, mainly, when events fueled by fear are triggered.
But, not only economists, analysts and opinion makers make prognoses, in fact, the national government also makes its own projections, for example, last year, when presenting the draft General Budget of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly (ALP) to the Plurinational Legislative Assembly (ALP). State, set as official goals for 2025 a growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.51%; an inflation of 7.5%; a fiscal deficit of 9.2% and a level of public investment of 4,024 million dollars, aiming to reverse the meager indicators of 2024, based on the “combination of public and private investment, the development of strategic sectors, the improvement of agricultural productivity and the launch of dozens of state industries”, within the framework of the industrialization with import substitution that it promotes, aiming to “generate foreign currency savings and reduce the fiscal deficit”, according to the Minister of Economy and Public Finance (“Minister Montenegro outlines a better 2025 with the launch of state industries and higher income”, Bolivian Information Agency, 12/26/2024).
The truth is that only God – in his omniscience – knows how the country’s economy will fare this year, as well as knowing the intentions of the hearts of each of us, rulers and governed, and lets us make decisions, good or bad, in use of our free will and this is where the key lies for things to improve during this administration, assimilating the mistakes of the past so as not to repeat them in the future.
It is sad to say, but from an economic point of view, 2024 was not a good year, since the official goals were not met due to external factors (climate change, fall in international prices) against which some precautions could have been taken. but also, due to internal factors (blockades, enslavement of productive properties, abnormality in the supply of diesel, shortage and increase in the price of the dollar, non-approval of external credits in the ALP, brakes on exports, hoarding, concealment, speculation and smuggling of subsidized products) which can be influenced with good public policies and the proper functioning of institutions.
Hence, when talking about the challenges for 2025, the need to: 1) Maintain price stability (inflation shot up to 9.97% in 2024, exceeding the official goal of 3.6) is inevitable. %); 2) Promote private investment, national or foreign, so that there is greater growth and employment (it is estimated that in 2024 the GDP could grow just above 2% compared to the 3.71% forecast, in addition, the precariousness of employment continues ); 3) That foreign trade emerge from its deficit situation (in 2024 a second consecutive imbalance was established due to the drop in exports by nearly 2,000 million dollars and the drop in imports by almost 1,700 million, until November), in this Last section, vital for stability and the economy, the selective promotion of exports in rapid reaction sectors such as agriculture/agroindustrial and forestry/timber is recommended, to generate short-term the dollars necessary to import the essentials: transportation equipment, supplies, capital goods and fuels.
To achieve a better 2025, we will need: Legal security (zero enslavement and blockages); security of markets (free export) and security of a public-private synergy to overcome challenges and take advantage of opportunities.
