Even Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said that the debate on an increase of 75 points is almost mandatory: “We do not have a consistent position with the inflation that we have and that is precisely why we are putting on the table that we have to be more forceful,” commented the past June 10.
However, he clarified that the increase in that level would be up for debate until August. But analysts estimate that the possibility of taking the reference rate to 7.75%, from the current 7%, has a high probability of materializing this week.
“Banxico will announce the result of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, in which we anticipate that, similarly to the Federal Reserve, it will announce a 75 basis point hike in the reference rate,” anticipated Scotiabank’s Economic Studies area. , in a report published this Monday.
The specialists added that the decision will not be unanimous, as it is expected to be a 4-1 vote.
The Investment Analysis Directorate of Citibanamex also contemplated a 75-point increase in the Banxico rate, since “rarely” the entity now led by Victoria Rodríguez “breaks with the movements made by the Fed with the aim of maintaining its monetary position relative”.
Invex has the same forecast, and points out that if it materializes there will be a strengthening in the Mexican peso against the US dollar. However, he added, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of the rate increase among experts, mainly due to the repercussions that this decision could have on the recovery of the Mexican economy.
Carlos Capistrán and Christian González, economist for Mexico and Canada at Bank of America Securities, and economist for Latin America at the same institution, respectively, point out that one question is how many increases of 75 basis points Banxico will make in the coming months.
They added that investors want to know more details about the positions of Governor Victoria Rodríguez and Deputy Governor Galia Borja regarding the entity’s monetary policy.
Last week, Deputy Governor Gerardo Esquivel emphasized that the increase in rates by the Fed is only one of the elements to be considered and not the decisive one, although it is relevant.
Next Thursday, Banxico will announce its decision at 1:00 p.m. local time.
