Although there are still a couple of months to officially begin the negotiations of the minimum wage of 2026, within the national government there would already be a defined position against the adjustment that should be carried out to wages that by law, by law, They must receive more than three million Colombians.
Information known to Portfolio indicates that President Gustavo Petro would have already given the order to the Ministry of Labor to sit in 11%, a level that analysts and unions have warned that could play against the generation of formal employment and economic growth.
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This amount, which would not only bend the expected inflation, but would make the calls a deaf ear to prudence, would be consigned in advance in the same general budget of the Nation by 2026, where the personnel expenses of the public entities have already adjusted under that parameter.
ANDs So the track was given the official accounts, since a thorough review Of the expense accounts for incoming validity, it showed that all entities were projecting personnel increases around 11%, which showed that the decision was not isolated, but a uniform policy.
While unions and companies are already talking, the Concertación Board will officially begin in December.
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Similarly, officials of the Ministry of Labor confirmed privately to this medium that this was the percentage planned for the minimum wage, corroborating that it is the official position of the government for the labor agreement that must be installed in the coming months.
The Executive Plan
The Government’s commitment to an increase of 11% is not less if one takes into account that it means a real increase above the projected inflation (close to 5%), which seeks to guarantee greater purchasing power for about 3.5 million workers that accrue the minimum and for a greater number that sees its indexed income to this value.
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We must not forget that in the words of President Gustavo Petro himself, said in previous address, the objective is to achieve “a good decree of elevation of the minimum wage”, as happened with the adjustment decreed for the current year.
Likewise, we must bring up that the Minister of Labor, Antonio Sanguino, It has been emphatic that the process will be advanced in the Permanent Commission for the Concertación de Salarial and Labor Policies, with the participation of entrepreneurs, unions and government and that only in case an agreement is not achieved, the President may set the increase by decree, as allowed by the Constitution.
While unions and companies are already talking, the Concertación Board will officially begin in December.
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However, the official has reiterated that this government has driven increases above inflation, which, in his words, has improved the purchasing capacity, decreased unemployment and maintained inflation under control.
The reading of analysts
The market, however, observes the official position, as is the case of a Bancolombia report that warns that, under the case of a minimum rise in 2026 higher than inflation, business costs They would rise on average 7.6% annual nominal, which would press the profitability margins.
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Thus, the sectors that earn less after covering their costs and have a high participation of the payroll would be the most affected, especially the manufacturing industry, trade and intensive services in labor, so in those activities, entrepreneurs would have to allocate a greater portion of their income to the payment of wages, which would limit their investment capacity and force them to rethink their contracting schemes.
The report also warns that, although the current labor reform includes Mechanisms of formalization and benefits for MSMEs, platform workers, medical internal, journalists and athletes, the load of additional costs could have an adverse effect on formal hiring in the short and medium term.
While unions and companies are already talking, the Concertación Board will officially begin in December.
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Likewise, the most recent figures in the labor market and productive activity show a mixed panorama in which, according to the DANE, the unemployment rate was 8.8%, the lowest since before the pandemic, giving margin to the government to defend their thesis that salary increases have not stopped the generation of employment.
On the economy side, the BBVA Research analysis indicates that the second quarter of 2025 left a 2.1% GDP growth on annual average, with acceleration signals in June (2.9% year -on -year). However, seasonality adjusted data shows a less favorable reality in which after growing 1.4% in April, the economy monitoring indicator (ISE) fell 0.2% in May and 1.1% in June, reflecting weakness in sectors such as industry, construction and financial intermediation.
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However, BBVA himself warns that, although consumption continues to show strength thanks to employment and trust, investment continues at historically low levels, which limits the growth potential and generates doubts about the absorption capacity of higher labor costs.
The tension between government and market
Thus, the expectation of an increase of 11% in the minimum wage by 2026 It exacerbates the tension between official discourse and market reading, since on the one hand, the Government argues that these increases protect the most vulnerable homes, promote domestic demand and are reflected in a better quality of life for millions of workers.
While unions and companies are already talking, the Concertación Board will officially begin in December.
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Not surprisingly, the Sanguino Minister recalls that “if there is no agreement, the president has the legal power to decree the increase,” and adds that the Executive is committed to setting an increase that really improves workers’ income.
On the other hand, financial businessmen and analysts insist that a two -digit increase, in a context of fragile recovery of the economy and with labor reforms that already raise costs, can become a brake on formality and private investment. Since Gustavo Petro came to power, This indicator rose 10.7% in 2022, 16% in 2023, 12% in 2024 and 9.53% in 2025.
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If the increase that the Petro government would propose, the minimum wage would be at $ 1,580,085. That is why it is enough to say that the Concertación Commission was already reactivated with the support of DANE figures, the Bank of the Republic and the Ministry of Finance and during the next months, unions, unions and government will present their proposals.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
