For the following year, the payment of taxes will contribute 67 pesos of every 100 that enter the public treasury. This will be a historic level, according to figures from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
What motivates tax collection?
The collection of public revenue through the collection of taxes takes on greater weight in public finances. Since 2012, its participation has increased; It generated 41% of all income and in 2024 it contributed 66%.
Behind this increase and the Treasury’s effort to collect them there are different factors.
Lower oil revenues
Unlike tax collection, the income generated by the country from the production and sale of oil has had a lower share since 2007. There is less income from this concept due to a better appreciation of the peso against the dollar, a lower price of crude oil internationally, and Pemex’s declining production.
Oil revenues had their greatest contribution to the public treasury with 44.3% in 2007, when Pemex reported its highest production with 3.1 million barrels per day. By the end of 2025, they are expected to contribute 12.1%, one of the lowest percentages recorded, with an estimated production of 1.7 million barrels per day. By 2026, they are expected to recover and generate 14%.
Mandatory Expenses on the Rise
The reduction in oil revenues does not exempt the public sector from providing public goods and services, in addition to complying with its mandatory expenses, which are constantly growing.
These mandatory expenses are the payment of interest on the debt (financial cost); pensions and retirements; debts from previous years, mostly made up of debt to Pemex suppliers, and the transfers of resources to the states through the Participations.
These expenses will take 8.4 trillion pesos in 2026, which represents 82.3% of a total expenditure of 10.2 trillion pesos, which leaves few resources available for programmable spending that is mostly allocated to functions such as health, education, science, culture, infrastructure, security and transportation, among others.
Cut the deficit
The public sector spends more than it generates, and this difference or deficit is paid with debt, known as the Public Sector Financial Requirements (RFSP). At the end of 2024, this difference reached a maximum level of 5.7% of GDP, this year it is expected to reduce it to 4.3%, to close 2026 with 4.1%.
The goal of reducing the deficit or fiscal consolidation is part of the republican austerity policy that the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador inherited from Claudia Sheinbaum. This involves cuts or adjustments to programmable spending which is used to provide public services and goods such as education, health, sports, culture, science and infrastructure.
Only in the January-August period, the Ministry of Finance reported an adjustment of 321.9 billion pesos.
How will more be collected without a tax reform?
In 2026, 5.8 billion pesos will be collected in taxes, out of a total income of 8.7 billion, says the Federal Income Law Initiative (ILIF) contained in the 2026 Economic Package that was presented on September 8 by the Executive to the Congress of the Union, and which is under discussion for voting in Deputies and Senators before October 31.
Without a tax reform, the strategy lies in continuing with digitalization and greater accessibility to digital procedures, in addition to the fight against tax evasion and avoidance. Among the new provisions proposed are: increasing the rates of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on flavored beverages such as soft drinks and juices, from 1.64 to 3.08 pesos per liter; increase the ad valorem rate from 160 to 200% for tobacco. An 8% tax on video games with violent content.
According to the Treasury, the three updates have the objective of discouraging the consumption of these products to care for health, rather than raising income. It is estimated that these will generate extra revenue of more than 40,000 million pesos for next year.
The collection strategy also contains the application of tariffs for purchases of goods from countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement, especially China. Likewise, greater control and surveillance of the Tax Administration Service (SAT), reinforcement of measures and sanctions for issuing and using false invoices is expected.
