If the elections were held next Sunday, 42% of Uruguayans would vote for broad fronthe 30% to the National Party and the 4% to the Colorado partysame percentage as Town meetingaccording to a survey by Opción Consultores, released this Wednesday on Telenoche.
For his part, a 1% would vote for the Independent Partythe same percentage that would favor the Intransigent Radical Ecologist Party and also the same percentage that would give their vote to other parties. 6% would vote on blank or void Meanwhile he 11% do not know or do not answer.
If all the percentages of the parties of the multicolor coalition are added (National Party, Colorado Party, Open Cabildo and Independent Party), the Broad Front surpasses it by three percentage points, a 42% against 39%.
Consultants Option
Voting intention survey
“Starting in the second half of 2021, The Broad Front has remained close to voting in that instance, which suggests that it has a relatively firm electoral base for the first round of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.. Expectably (as has happened from 2004 onwards), the National Party is the second preferred political force, positioning itself with 30% of preferences”, affirms the consultant in the analysis of the survey.
“Also, therefore, andThe National Party is at a slightly higher level than its 2019 electoral record. His two main partners in the ruling coalition, Partido Colorado and Cabildo Abierto, register in both cases figures of 4%, close to a third of what they voted in the last elections. Meanwhile, the Independent Party registers a flow of preferences similar to its last vote, marking 1%, “he adds.
Coalition surpasses Broad Front if undecided are cross-examined
For its part, the survey asks the undecided who they would vote for in the elections. In this case, the Broad Front rises to 44%the National Party 3. 4% and both the Colorado party as Town meeting amount to 5%. PERI has 2% Meanwhile he independent party It remains in 1%.
In that case, heThe coalition surpasses the Broad Front by one percentage point (45% to 44%).
Consultants Option
Voting intention survey
“The greater bias towards the coalition in the indefinite electorate constitutes a constant of this government cycle, an aspect that may be reflecting (among other phenomena) the existence of an electorate with an aversion to the Broad Front but without a marked preference for any of the parties of the current ruling bloc“, it is stated in the analysis
“We could call these voters the ‘undecided coalitionists’. The FA is also growing but it does so to a lesser extent, reaching at 44% of preferences. Thus, there remains a hard core of refractory voters (3%), a percentage that coincides with the usual blank or null vote, and another hard core of undecided voters (5%),” he adds.
Frente Amplio scored 13 points less in 2018
For his part, in a survey carried out in April 2018, when almost the same time in government had elapsed as at present, the broad front had an intention to vote 29%, 13 points less than the intention it has in this survey. The National Party had 27%and the Colorado Party 7%. The Cabildo Abierto had not yet been formed.
Consultants Option
Voting intention survey
“It is observed that the current balance of forces is far from that existing in June 2018, when clearly the four existing parties of the coalition (the birth of the Cabildo Abierto is still pending), far exceeded the FA in party preferences, so very similar to the electoral result of the first round of 2019“added the analysis.
The survey was conducted by telephone at 849 people between May 15 and 22, 2023.
