Oil shipments to Cuba are one of the most sensitive issues for the Cuban economy, mired in a deep crisis, and also one of the best kept by its Government, which suspiciously reserves data on the receipt of fuel and its contracts with allied countries.
The island depends on imported fuel to run its weak electrical system. Since the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, blackouts, a chronic problem, have intensified. In large areas of the country they exceed 20 hours a day.
The executive order signed this Thursday by US President Donald Trump, which establishes that he may impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, occurs when the island is already in a situation at the limit.
In the absence of public figures, different independent calculations estimate that Cuba currently requires about 110 thousand barrels of oil per day.
Of them, just over 40 thousand a day are obtained from wells on the north coast of the island. Cuba must import the remaining 70 thousand (although the lack of foreign currency means that this figure is not reached, which causes blackouts and fuel shortages).
Venezuela sent about 27 thousand barrels per day to Cuba in 2025, according to the Reuters specialized service; while Russia contributed close to 6 thousand daily and Mexico, between 6 thousand and 12 thousand, depending on the estimates that EFE cannot independently verify.
It is also not possible to verify if the fuels are part of collaboration agreements in which Havana sends medical personnel as compensation, if it commits to payment in credits, if the supply is framed as a donation or if an amount is determined below the market price.
According to figures from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) of Cuba consulted by the Energy Institute of the University of Texas, 65% of the fuel the country needs is to power thermoelectric plants, obsolete with more than four decades of operation.
Likewise, according to an investigation by The New York Times, Cuba was in turn reselling part of the oil supplied by Venezuela to China as a way to supply itself with foreign currency, given the plummet in tourism and remittances.
At other specific times, shipments have been confirmed through other countries, as happened with Algeria through a cooperation agreement after the visit to that country of the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, in 2022.
Mexico, the new sender
After the capture of Maduro, the media focus has shifted to Mexico, which significantly increased the supply of fuel to Havana since the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024).
However, the current president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has neither confirmed nor denied the alleged stoppage in fuel shipments from the state-owned Pemex.
What he did affirm is that they will continue sending humanitarian aid and that Mexico will “determine” if that includes crude oil based on requests from the Cuban authorities.
The pressure on Mexico from Washington coincides with this year’s review of the trade agreement it has with the United States and Canada (T-MEC). Only at the beginning of the month did the Ocean Mariner oil tanker arrive in Havana Bay, loaded with some 86,000 barrels of fuel from Mexico, as confirmed to EFE by the Energy Institute of the University of Texas.
According to a study provided to EFE by Cuban economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes, a 30% drop in fuel availability on the island (which represents the void left by Caracas) would be reflected in a 27% drop in gross domestic product (GDP), a 60% rise in food prices and a 75% rise in transportation prices, and a 30% drop in household consumption.
