When a grade 8 earthquake could occur in Chile, according to the National Seismological Center

Chili crosses a streak of tremors consecutive that has put the authorities and experts alert. Over the last days, the northern part of the country, near the border with Peru, has experienced several earthquakes, the strongest reached 6.0 degrees. These shaking have joined the concern for a possible earthquake of magnitude 8, which, according to experts, would have great implications for the southern region of Peru.

The National Seismological Center of Chili He estimates that there is a 65% chance that in 2026 an earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher in the north of Chili. This figure is based on historical studies that reveal that on average an earthquake of this magnitude occurs every 12 years. The last major earthquake in the area was recorded in 2015 in Coquimbo, with a magnitude of 8.4 degrees.

Study predicts a 65% probability of a great magnitude earthquake in Chile by 2026, with possible repercussions in southern Peru. Source: Canva

Impact on southern Peru

To occur an earthquake in Chilithe shakes could feel in southern Peru, especially in the regions of Tacna, Moquegua and Arequipa. Hernando Tavera, president of the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), stressed that this area also presents an accumulation of seismic energy, which increases the probability of an earthquake in that area. In addition, he pointed out that the interaction between the Nazca and South American plates, responsible for the seismic activity in the region, makes the earthquakes inevitable.

One of the main concerns in case of a great earthquake is the possibility of generating a tsunami. Experts point out that not all earthquakes cause tsamot, but those that occur near the coast or in the seabed are the most likely to trigger a tsunami. Events such as the 2010 earthquake in Chile, of 8.8 degrees, generated a tsunami that affected several coastal locations.