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August 3, 2024
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What’s next: 87 economic projections for the second half of 2024

Sesión del Consejo de Ministros de Cuba, a finales de julio

HAVANA, Cuba. – During the most recent meeting of the Minister council Among other topics discussed were the regime’s strategy to promote the work of the socialist state enterprise, the placement of students who will soon graduate, as well as the policies that the machinery of power has been applying in recent weeks, that is, establishing relations between the state and non-state sectors of the economy, trying to eliminate tax evasion, continuing to control prices and trying to reduce the budget deficit.

As the most novel element in government policy regarding state-owned enterprises, the Minister of Labor and Social SecurityMarta Elena Feitó, announced that from now on all companies in the country will be able to organize their payment systems, and not only those that were previously authorized to do so. According to the official discourse, this measure could increase business autonomy and achieve higher levels of production.

However, the Prime Minister, Manuel Marrerowarned about the control that must be maintained around the relationship between the average salary and labor productivity, that is, ensuring that this kind of decentralization in terms of salaries does not cause the first element to grow more than the second, which would be very harmful to the economy. An anomaly that Castroism has suffered on repeated occasions.

A key moment in this meeting was Mr. Marrero’s announcement that 30 unspecified projections will be implemented in September to “correct distortions and boost the economy.” According to the premier“This is a very important level of actions, which will have an implementation process that will include the political and communication support that has been established.”

Later, the senior Castro official announced that in the second half of the year another 57 projections will be implemented – also not specified, and which add up to 87 with those of September – which are related to “deep issues linked to the macroeconomy.”

Although it did not come to light at this government conclave that some of the announced projections are related to the authorities’ crusade against non-state economic actors, especially against SMEsIt would not surprise anyone if some of the measures that will be implemented affect this type of management in one way or another.

Another issue that drew attention at this Council of Ministers was the plan for assigning graduates for 2025. Future technicians and professionals that Castroism plans to allocate to key sectors such as biopharmaceutical and food production, railway and electric energy programs, tourism, science, higher education, construction, defense and internal order.

It was said that the estimated number of graduates for 2024-2025 is 6,173 fewer students than in the current academic year. This is very bad news for the regime if we take into account the population and labor force deficit that the country faces.

According to information recently published in the newspaper Workersat the end of 2023 the country had 846,875 fewer people of working age than in December 2020. A situation that is influenced by population aging, the negative balance that the correlation between births and deaths has shown in recent times, as well as the huge wave of migration that has bled the nation.

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