December 8, 2022, 21:49 PM
December 8, 2022, 21:49 PM
“The verdict will further polarize Argentine society,” Professor Detlef Nolte, an expert at the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, based in Hamburg, says in an interview with DW. “Her supporters of her will continue to believe that she was persecuted for justice and her enemies are happy that she has been convicted and feel confirmed in her prejudices,” says Nolte.
The specific accusation, a serious corruption case that led to the conviction of the most powerful woman of Argentina and 12 other defendants, is getting lost in ideological trench warfare. Shortly after the verdict was announced, leftist leaders abroad were quick to express their solidarity with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela, Lula from Brazil and even Daniel Ortega from Nicaragua spoke quickly of “judicial persecution.”
Corruption or persecution?
Many Argentines They wonder if the verdict against Cristina Kirchner had a political motivation or not, confirms Susanne Käss, head of the office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Buenos Aires, in an interview with DW. The expert finds it strange that the question of whether or not there was corruption has taken a backseat.
“From my point of view, there are indications that, definitely, It is not just a political sentence, because the judges who now handed down this sentence were named in part by Cristina Kirchner herself”, says Susanne Käss.
However, Cristina Kirchner appears to have made a direct political decision as a result of the verdict. “I am not going to be a candidate for anything, neither for president, nor for senator. My name will not be on any ballot”. This sentence was an unexpected announcement by the former president during the address she gave from the Senate office on Tuesday (12.06.2022), as soon as the sentence was known. Who will appear for the ruling Peronism and who for the opposition in the 2023 presidential elections?
The economic situation is important
“If the economy can be stabilized a bit and inflation controlled by the middle of next year, the current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, could be the most promising candidate for the Peronists”says Detlef Nolte.
Sergio Massa is a kind of super minister in the Government of Alberto Fernández. He is responsible for economy, development and agriculture. If Massa gets significantly improve the economic situation of the population, would probably have the best chances as a Peronist candidate. But the task is not easy.
In 2021, Argentina’s public debt was around 80.9 percent of gross domestic product. By 2022, the national debt of Argentina is around 76 percent. However, more crucial for the population is inflation. In October 2022, Argentina’s inflation rate was 88 percent year-on-year. By comparison, the average global inflation rate in 2021 was 4.70 percent.
“What the country urgently needs at the moment are really far-reaching reforms to clean up the state’s finances,” says Susanne Käss. Despite the economic difficulties, the country has great potential, especially in the agricultural sector, she said. “Argentina is the seventh world exporter of wheat and, with the war in Ukraine as a backdrop, it has the potential to significantly increase its production,” Käss stresses.
The opposition is divided
Both experts believe that Alberto Fernández has little chance of being re-elected in the presidential election at the end of next year and probably won’t run. On the other hand, the opposition is not in a position to show unity at the moment, but is losing itself in internal struggles for power.
Ultimately, however, according to Nolte, the winner of the next presidential election it will not be the one that generates more sympathy, but the one that arouses less antipathy. This rule applies to many elections, but it is particularly true in Argentina.
