“What is the difference between Cuba and the Titanic? The Titanic had its lights on when it sank.” A Cuban told this joke to a CNN journalist. They suffer but they don’t lose their sense of humor and, above all, they don’t exaggerate. Yesterday, January 29, 57% of the island was left in darkness at the time of greatest demand, the evening.
Nine of the 16 thermoelectric production units are out of service. There is no official information on power plants that run on hydrocarbons, but the numbers will be similar. In Havana, there are pockets of light in a sea of darkness. Outside the capital, these days it is normal for electricity to be out 20 hours a day.
The situation is bad and it will get worse. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on anyone who delivers oil to Cuba will worsen the energy crisis. The Island would need 110,000 barrels per day to operate “normally.” He produces 40,000 on his own. He received 100,000 from Venezuela, during Chávez’s time. This supply dropped to 58,000, then to 38,000 and in 2025 it was 27,000.
Last year, Mexico shipped more or less 19,200 barrels per day, 121% more than in 2024. In 2026, it will interrupt shipments, does anyone doubt that? To get an idea of what it means to live with a Cuban-style gasoline shortage, think that the waiting time for an individual to fill their tank can be 29 days. There is an app in which the appointment is reserved.
The tariffs could be accompanied by a total blockade of oil imports, if the plan of Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the US government, is followed. He is Cuban-American and a key figure in understanding the Trump administration in relation to Cuba. As an official, he has not been as eloquent, but he gives clues. In his appearance in the Senate on January 27, he stated that he would like to see a regime change, but suggested that there would not be direct involvement as there was in Venezuela.
Everything indicates that there will be economic asphyxiation. For years, the Cuban regime has complained of a blockade, to refer to what has actually been an embargo, in which the shipment of medicines, food, oil and money has been allowed. The blockade is on the radar and would hit hard a country that is experiencing the worst economic crisis since the communist regime was implemented 67 years ago.
The economy has fallen 15% in the last four years and faces a situation in which shortages, inflation and the collapse of the main activities coexist, with massive migration. Since 2021, 2.7 million people have left the country, reducing the population from 11 million to around 8.5 million. In Tourism, it received 4 million tourists in 2019 and now it is below 2 million. In sugar, they became the world’s largest exporter. Now production has plummeted, due to lack of fuel, machinery and fertilizers.
The crisis is so severe that even President Miguel Díaz-Canel has to recognize it and attributes it to “the accumulation of distortions, adversities, difficulties and his own errors, exacerbated by an extremely aggressive external siege.”
To the cutoff of oil supplies, restrictions on financial transactions and the number of flights could soon be added. Every year around 2 billion dollars arrive in remittances. Foreign investment has plummeted and credits are difficult to obtain for a country that generates almost no foreign currency to pay. Currently, there are 10 airlines that fly to Cuba, of which three are Mexican: Aeroméxico, Volaris and Viva Aerobus. How long will they continue doing it?
On Donald Trump’s calendar, 2026 is the year in which he will end the Cuban regime. How and when he will do it are questions that are up in the air. It is a fact that the Castro dictatorship is in a situation of extreme weakness, aggravated by the capture of Nicolás Maduro, but we must be careful with assuming that there will be a simple outcome. On January 11, the National Defense Council approved the plans and measures to usher in the State of War. There are military exercises; soldiers training citizens to repel external aggression. The control and repression of the Cuban people is also tightening.
What’s next? I am left with a phrase that I read in BBC Mundo: “even if they take us back to the time of the caves, this is not going to change.”
