The world is waiting for the future of the United States due to the elections that will be held this Tuesday, November 5. In the race is current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican and former President Donald Trump. Although the elections generate expectations, The future outlook for Latin America is once again at stake, depending on the winner.
(See: Colombia could be like the US but ‘institutions do not allow it’)
According to an analysis by Control Risks, Both the region and Colombia have especially trade relations at stake, although they assure that a victory by Donald Trump in the presidential elections would have enormous effects in Latin American territory.
In the case of Colombia, the consultant highlights that both the country and Venezuela, They face the greatest risks of disruption to bilateral relations if Trump wins the election. This would have direct implications on security cooperation in the case of Colombia and on sanctions policy for the second.
(See more: The Latin American countries that would be powers in 25 years, along with China and the US.)
Another aspect to highlight are the consequences of the trade war. In that sense, It is clear that Trump remains an advocate of tariffs to reduce the US goods trade deficit.
Therefore, until now, The former president has proposed enacting tariffs of 10% and 20% on imports from around the world and increase taxation on products from China by 60%.
(Read also: US expands sanctions on Iranian oil in response to attack on Israel)
“While the domestic implications of such policies are a hotly debated part of election campaigns, even a partial fulfillment of this promise would disrupt global trade flows, hitting demand in China’s manufacturing industries and causing volatility in currency markets.”, they highlight.
Presidential campaign for Donald Trump
EFE
In the case of Colombia, it is estimated that the country continues to be dependent on the US market, since Almost 30% of exports have the greatest exposure to that country’s tariffs, which is why it would suffer the greatest hit to gross domestic product (GDP). in a presidency like that of Donald Trump.
(See: Colombia lifts restriction on meat imports from the United States)
Even if the other Andean countries are analyzed, it is expected that the main exporters of raw materials from nations such as Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia would be indirectly affected by the reduction in demand for mineral and energy inputs in Chinaan important market for exports from those territories.
“Beyond trade effects, global economic volatility would likely lead to depreciation of emerging market currencies, creating a new source of inflationary pressure in Andean economies.”they say.
(Read: Trump would renegotiate trade agreements with Mexico and Canada if he wins the elections)
This consulting firm also projects tension with two countries in the scenario of Trump winning the elections. In reference to it, It is established that volatility will be witnessed with Venezuela and Colombia.
USA
EFE
Former President Trump since his first administration intensified sanctions against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, in support of the opposition’s attempt to remove him from power. For this, It is estimated that in the event of a Republican victory, a maximum pressure strategy would be returned.
“This would likely involve the cancellation of special Biden-era licenses that allow US and European oil companies to operate in Venezuela despite sanctions.”, they assure.
(Read more: Tense relationship between the US and China due to trade restrictions)
Likewise, they highlight that The Trump-Petro dynamic would introduce great volatility into what has traditionally been a stable alliancetaking into account that both leaders differ “radically” on issues ranging from security and drug trafficking to climate and energy transition.
Furthermore, the relationship would be contentious and volatile, and Trump would use the threat of tariffs as a bargaining chip or to decertify Colombia as a cooperating country in the fight against drugs.
(Read: How many years do you have to live in the United States to obtain a green card?)
“Colombia will continue to enjoy bipartisan support in Congress and will benefit from a free trade agreement with the United States. These sources of stability are likely to be sufficient to avoid a major breakdown in bilateral relations, or a realignment of Bogotá toward China.“, they highlight.
Presidential candidate for the United States elections, Kamala Harris
AFP
Migration, security and drugs
Another point to highlight is what has to do with migration, security and anti-narcotics policies. Regarding this, Control Risks details that It is possible that both candidates will adopt different approaches regarding those regional issues that are key in Latin America.
(See also: US military assistance to Israel reaches record high)
For example, on immigration, during Trump’s first term, former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was pressured to adopt more aggressive measures to detail and deport migrants who passed through Mexico en route to the United States.
Thus, Control Risks maintains that It is possible that this dynamic will continue in another Trump term, for which the Governments of Colombia and Ecuador would have to cooperate with US immigration policies or may face threats of tariffs or aid cuts for resisting.
(Read more: Harris leads Trump in polls, just four weeks before US elections)
Drugs
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Meanwhile, in terms of security and anti-drug policies, Trump is likely to clash with any regional government that does not share his support for tactics such as forced crop eradication and military operations against drug trafficking organizations.
(Read: Donald Trump’s very gloomy election campaign)
“Colombia, where coca and cocaine production has increased and armed groups have grown stronger under President Gustavo Petro, will likely face pressure from Washington to adopt harder-line tactics.“, they point out.
On the contrary to the Colombian case, in Ecuador President Daniel Noboa’s militarized security strategy would likely have strong support from the Trump administrationbut human rights oversight would likely be weakened. With Harris in power, an environment of cooperation and support for security efforts would be established.
(See more: How the US elections can influence Colombian investments there)
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Electoral environment
The United States presidential elections are consolidated as one of the most important in the world. Therefore, the dispute between Trump and Harris sets the tone for the electoral environment considering that it is a close race.
According to an analysis by the Anif Center for Economic Studies, although the reduction in unemployment to 4.1% and the slowdown in inflation to 2.4% in September 2024 reduce the risk of recession in the United States, The country still faces economic challenges to improve its performance.
(See: Inflation in the US fell to 2.1% in its annual variation as of September)
Analyzing the candidates’ proposals, both are campaigning with very different proportions in terms of inflation, fiscal deficit and social assistance programs.
For example, Anif emphasizes that Harris proposes to prohibit price speculation in food, increase incentives for housing and reduce drug prices, while Trump seeks to raise import tariffs from 10% to 20%, and even to 60% for China, and deregulate the economy to reduce taxes on companies and individuals.
“This election is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent American history. Victory will likely be decided by razor-thin margins in swing states. For this reason, attention is now focused there, where each vote could be decisive in determining the new leader who will define a new economic agenda that will affect both the local and international economy.“, they say.
(Read more: US presidential elections: key data and its global impact)
Elections in the United States
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According to the latest polls, Democrat Kamala Harris has a small lead over Republican Donald Trump. According to The New York Times, so far, The candidate is leading the polls with 49% approval compared to Trump’s 48%.
(See: The possible effects on foreign policy of the Petro government after elections in the USA.)
Both candidates must even reach 270 electoral votes, where as of press time Harris had 226 votes, while Trump had 219. According to international analyst, Luis Alberto Villamarín, The electoral environment is becoming tense due to the reactions that may occur when a victory is announced..
“It is already known that if Trump loses there could be confrontations and there could even be civil unrest. While if Harris, the United States Congress, which has a large number of Republicans, will firmly oppose everything he does. In short, polarization is already in force and will occur no matter who wins.”, he concluded.
(Read more: Kamala Harris surprises with a cameo alongside her impersonator on Saturday Night Live)
