Yes it’s going to take a while; Venezuela’s reserves are mainly in the Orinoco Oil Belt, it has very particular characteristics, very complicated to access, you need investment, infrastructure. So, I see that the consensus among analysts is that at least three years, regardless of time, a recovery in production is feasible.
Arturo Carranza, specialist in energy issues.
JP Morgan states in a note that, with a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) within two years, and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd in the next decade, compared to around 800,000 bpd currently.
Although Venezuela is part of OPEC, whose objective is to regulate the production and price of oil, the country can leave after Trump’s objective of increasing supply, and thus reduce inflation in the United States, which was one of his campaign promises. “If one reads the national security strategy of the United States, I see the United States influencing Venezuela precisely to provide a counterweight to this type of organization, it is going to leave,” Carranza commented.
Less income for Mexico
A decrease in international price prices has its implications for Mexico’s finances, of which the lower oil revenues stand out, already reduced by the declines in production, exports and the low level of the dollar against the Mexican peso, during 2025.
Mexico’s exports have been reduced to supply refineries in the country. “If the production and availability of the supply of Venezuelan crude oil increases, and we have the same client who are the refineries of Texas and Louisiana, which have the metallurgy to use heavy crude oil from Venezuela and Mexico as raw material, in the worst case scenario the Venezuelan crude oil would come to compete with that of Mexico, then our negotiating capacity would be reduced or affected,” comments Luis Miguel Labardini, partner at the firm Marcos y Asociados.
The lower exports, although expected to be marginal, imply less oil revenue for the public treasury, which is used to provide public services and goods to the population, in addition to expanding the availability of resources against debt commitments.
By increasing supply, crude oil prices decrease and this also implies decreases in gasoline and diesel prices, which can compensate for the decrease in oil revenues, by charging 100% of the federal quota of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on fuels, that is, without granting fiscal support or subsidies.
Labardini highlights that even close to 60% of gasoline consumption is imported. So, when crude oil goes down, fuel goes down; “There the federal government can establish an IEPS rate that allows it to have income, the problem is when crude oil goes very high, because the dependence on US gasoline imports is very great,” he noted.
For this year, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit foresees that the price of the Mexican mixture will average 54.9 dollars per barrel at the end of 2026, as of January 5 of this year it reports a level of 53.58 dollars per barrel. While the future value of crude oil started the week with drops of 0.4% for a barrel of Brent and West Texas, each.
