Less than a month from the second electoral round, the economic team of the Free Alliance, which postulates Tuto Quiroga to the Presidency, refines the guidelines of an immediate stabilization plan to face the liquidity crisis, energy shortage and the loss of confidence in the financial system. Anticipate shock measures to cut the financing of the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB).
What is the estimated amount of the ‘bridge credits’ and the conditions that are in the sights to face the crisis?
The idea of having an amount of about $ 1 billion and has to do with the following: guarantee between three and four months of fuel imports and total supply for the population. And why? Because in that period the necessary structural changes can be made and coordinate with the private sector to release the import of fuels, define logistics, the use of YPFB infrastructure and other actors, so that thereafter imports become a private sector business, with the support of the State.
Regarding the conditions, as these are multilateral organisms, the rates are low, lower than those of the market, and the deadlines are wide. It is much more advantageous to resort to this type of financing than to borrow with the private sector. In addition, when they are bridge loans, they have flexible deadlines and conditions, designed to stabilize an emergency situation and not increase structural debt.
What measures of the free economic plan were formally submitted to international organizations, and what level of commitment or obtained?
One of the central points was the use of free availability resources. Something in which there is total coincidence with the agencies is that, as long as the State does not return to the banks – and these to the savers – these almost US 2,000 million that citizens deposited and that the Central Bank absorbed, will not return the confidence to the financial system.
While people prefer to have dollars at home, in security boxes or outside the country, it will be very difficult to reactivate the economy. Therefore, it is essential to allocate those resources to restore trust. We cannot fail the saver: it is an internal debt that must be prioritized above any other commitment. This does not imply an increase in public debt, because an internal obligation is replaced by external financing in better conditions. Multilateral organizations agree that it is an indispensable measure to stabilize the financial system and rebuild trust.
What will be the elimination schedule (or reduction) of the fuel subsidy and how do they plan to avoid a social shock or cost breakup?
A key element of the economic program is to unify the exchange rate. There can be no trust as long as there is an official exchange rate that no one uses and a parallel that varies constantly according to the informal market, banks, crypto platforms or changers. That uncertainty generates bad economic decisions.
We want to return to a scheme like the bag, where everyone knew what the exchange rate and its variation was gradual and predictable. To do this, the new exchange rate will be higher than the officer and lower than the parallel, and we will need to have enough dollars to defend it.
There comes the importance of free availability credits: having sufficient liquid reserves to ensure that everyone who wants to buy dollars can do it, and that no one has incentives to escape the parallel. Exchange certainty will, in turn, gradually adjust subsidies without generating shocks.
What concrete steps will be adopted to structure the ‘citizen property’ plan without generating legal insecurity?
The first step will be to create a national registry of beneficiaries, incorporating advanced biometric identification systems – digital huella and ocular scan – to avoid duplications and ensure that each citizen has only one action. Then, an audit and transparency process of the state companies involved to determine the value of their assets and, therefore, the real value of each popular action will be carried out. This does not affect existing contracts, because the actions that will be distributed come from state property, which will pass to citizens. It is an orderly process, which will strengthen trust, will bring the management of resources to the people and allow each Bolivian to be a direct shareholder of the National Heritage.
Consider applying expenses with shock measures to overcome the crisis in the first days of an eventual government
Yes, we will apply shock measures oriented to transparency and stability. The first will be to cut the financing of the Central Bank to the Government, because the current inflation is fundamentally monetary: the BCB has issued money to cover the deficit and to buy gold, generating inflationary pressures.
We will also implement an immediate reform of public spending, focused on efficiency and austerity. Every contract or tender must be public and competitive, eliminating finger awards.
We will create an independent agency of state purchasing supervision, which citizens can go to report irregularities or tenders. This will reduce overprices and improve the use of public resources.
In summary, shock will not be against people, but against corruption, opacity and waste.
