The general manager of Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) He is optimistic about the performance of the economy this year, although he warns of risks in the short term if the candidates do not strengthen their government plans.
With the performance of the Peruvian economy so far this year, what can be expected for the rest of 2025?
With the good closing figures for private investment, consumption and employment, there is a good expectation going forward, for example, in the reduction of poverty levels that would have occurred in 2025 and that we will know in May. At IPE, a few days ago we published a survey of economists. We asked them about their expectations of poverty reduction and 90% believe that it will be reduced. Two out of three consider that it will fall by up to two points. Therefore, this year begins with positive prospects that should lead to somewhat more economic dynamism compared to other electoral years.
In an election context, have you identified any risk factors that should worry us?
Among the identified risks of the campaign are some advertisements that do not contribute to improving the image of the candidates leading the polls. They will not have constitutional reforms, but they do need a stronger position regarding illegal mining, the autonomy of the Central Bank and the use of international reserves, as well as, in general, on fiscal management, which could compromise the financial health of the country in the future. Some risks could come from there in the second half of the year.
Taking into account that all government plans are published, what proposals do you consider to be absent or incomplete?
Almost all candidates have proposals regarding insecurity. However, very few have a cost-benefit analysis and very few have concrete proposals, beyond good ideas. On the other hand, the issue of illegal mining is where it is observed that there is a greater gap. There is a lot of recognition for small artisans and small miners, but not the seriousness with which illegal mining should be addressed, except for some, like Willians, who have come out to say strong things. Both issues are worrying.
One of the risks that he mentioned for the second semester is fiscal management. How do you evaluate the performance of the current administration of Jerí and company on this front?
A few months ago, the Fiscal Council released this famous report in which it reported the number of regulations with spending initiatives that put public finances at risk. In recent days, the same entity has published a statement stating: “We do not see a change in attitude (in Jerí’s government), twenty-odd laws approved by Congress with fiscal impact have been enacted without an objection.” No intentions have been taken nor are there any intentions to take anything to the Constitutional Court. That is to say, there has not really been a brake.
But the Minister of Economy, Denisse Miralles, together with the Jerí cabinet, have emerged triumphant with the fulfillment of the fiscal deficit goal…
The Fiscal Council has maintained that, of the four components of the fiscal rule, only two would have been complied with, thus maintaining non-compliance. Furthermore, we should look at the cost at which this compliance that the MEF came out to celebrate has occurred. For example, the National Infrastructure Authority (ANIN), which was projected as the experiment of the Ministry of Infrastructure, had its budgets frozen, so it is expected that three regions’ economies will have fallen by 2025. One of these is Tumbes, because half of the region was boosted by public investment in the works that the ANIN was carrying out. You should also look at the income side.
What is your observation on the tax revenues that explained the 2025 deficit?
There were and are extraordinary income from mining that we are not saving as we did 10 or 15 years ago with the previous supercycle. The Fiscal Stabilization Fund has not experienced this strong increase. In addition, there are extraordinary incomes such as that of Credicorp. However, today the taxpayer pays and can then take the case to a judicial process, so in a couple of years we will see if it really was income or not. So, there are extraordinary incomes that are not the result of a major reform. The pending task is still there.
Is it guaranteed to reach the fiscal deficit goal of 1.8% of GDP for this year?
In the survey of economists, we asked them if they considered the fiscal deficit goal for this year to be credible and achievable. Two out of three answered no. We do not see a context in which, in general, economists are calm about future fiscal management, neither on the part of Congress nor the Executive. We need a responsible Executive in the next government, with the ability to manage Congress and coordinate in the best way. If we do not have that, the truth is that we are going to continue on this path of fiscal deterioration.
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