2024 has entered the final stretch and with less than 30 days left until the end of the year, the market’s expectation is focused on the most relevant news and events that will mark the stop during this season in which almost all economic movements are already They are served and most companies are thinking about what lies ahead.
Although almost everything is already given, there are still facts that generate concern among investors, since they will serve as a basis for the economic calculations of 2025, especially on issues such as inflation, labor costs and the global dynamics that would arrive in January and February. .
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From Scotiabank they recalled that the last month of the year comes loaded with relevant economic issues, such as the discussions for the adjustment of the minimum wage in 2025, the impact of geopolitical tensions and the election of the new cabinet of the electro president Donald Trump in the United States, which could generate volatility in the markets and the dollar.
That said, its analysts presented the ‘Economic 5’ report, which explores how these interrelated factors will influence Colombia’s economic future and warns that it is not yet time to let our guard down.
Investments.
In first place they placed the increase in the minimum wage in Colombia, point in which they assure that with a first deadline to reach an agreement between employers and workers set for December 15, seeing how everything will start will be a fundamental part of the economic environment in December.
“Declining inflation establishes a lower floor for negotiations, while the Ministry of Finance suggests an increase of 6.2%. However, the projections of the Bank of the Republic, which anticipate inflation of 5.3% for 2024 and 3.10% for 2025, will be decisive. This adjustment will be less than in previous years, however, it will reflect price stabilization and will continue to protect purchasing capacity,” they noted.
For Scotiabank experts, we must not forget that 80% of employment in Colombia is concentrated in micro, small and medium-sized businesses, many of them informal, so although the minimum wage is crucial, its direct impact does not cover everyone. income and can limit business formalization. In addition, they recalled that it affects the costs of intensive services in labor, which requires prudence in negotiations to promote labor formalization.
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After this comes inflation and interest rates, signaling that economic conditions in 2024 have improved, allowing the population to reach December with greater purchasing power thanks to more favorable savings rates and stability in which the rate was maintained. of change in most of the year.
“This favors competitive prices in commerce, promoting consumption responsible without resorting to excessive debt. In the third quarter of 2024, the economy grew by 2% compared to the same period in 2023, with a 1.6% increase in household consumption. These trends could continue, supported by projected economic growth of 1.5% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, promoting prudent use of credit and savings,” they indicated.
Thirdly, related to all of the above, they added that the Bank of the Republic will hold its last meeting of the year on December 20 and despite expectations of faster reductions in 2024, global and local uncertainty led the central bank to act cautiously.
Colombian pesos
“A reduction of 50 basis points is anticipated, placing the rate at 9.25%, the lowest level since the end of 2022. For 2025, further cuts are projected due to the moderation of inflation and the need to stimulate the economy,” the report says.
These experts added that the Colombian economy will close 2024 with a projected growth of 1.5%, reflecting a moderate recovery driven by sectors such as agriculture, entertainment and public administration.
However, they warn that key sectors such as mining and manufacturing suffered contractions, while commerce, essential for employment, grew in a limited way, especially affecting women and that despite a slight recovery in household consumption after high inflation, challenges persist in investment and public spending.
At Scotiabank they closed by talking about the international panorama, where they stated that the presidential elections in the United States with Donald Trump as president-elect have increased global volatility, given that his agenda includes corporate tax cuts and trade barriers and this generates economic uncertainty.
In addition, they asked not to overlook the geopolitical tensions and cautious adjustments in interest rates by central banks, which for them will mark December, influencing the outlook for inflation and growth. key aspects for global and local monetary policy decisions.
