AREQUIPA, Peru – The possible formation of a tropical depression next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba, has prompted an alert from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
In a release Published this Saturday, the entity forecasts the formation of a wide area of low pressure between the northwest of the Caribbean and the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.
Although the probability of this system developing in the next 48 hours is low, after that time window the NHC reports a 60% probability that it will evolve into a tropical depression.
The meteorological event would develop with a slow movement towards the north or northwest, potentially impacting the southern Gulf of Mexico and with possible influences on the weather from western Cuba.
According to the report, the system could gradually gain strength as it moves, driven by warm sea temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear in the region, conditions that are favorable for the formation of tropical cyclones.
The NHC forecast has generated alerts in several areas of the region although there is no immediate development expected.
In a recent seasonal forecast update, published at the end of August, specialists from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba reaffirmed their initial projections on the hurricane season of 2024, highlighting a “very active” behavior in the North Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Dr. Miriam Teresita Llanes Monteagudo, head of the Institute’s Forecast Center, explained to the official Granma For the remainder of the season, 15 tropical storms are expected to form in this geographic area, nine of which could develop into hurricanes.
The analysis details that, of the total number of storms expected, 12 will develop in the Atlantic ocean area, while three could originate in the Caribbean Sea. The probability of a hurricane The probability of originating and intensifying in the Caribbean is 85%, and there is a 70% chance that a hurricane originating in the Atlantic will penetrate the Caribbean region.
In addition, the risk of Cuba being hit by at least one hurricane stands at 80%, while the probability of at least one tropical storm hitting the country reaches 90%.
