The war in Ukraine has generated a “huge global readjustment” in the energy markets, experts from the so-called Intelligence Unit (EIU) of the magazine “The Economist“, who forecast that crude oil prices will remain “elevated” during 2023.
In a webinar organized by the EIU, which produces specialized monthly reports, the impact on the world energy market of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was analyzed, as well as the reopening of the china economy.
During the talk, the analyst Nicolás Saldías affirmed that “the war in Ukraine It has generated a “huge readjustment” in the energy markets, because “before the Russian invasion of that country, Russia was the largest energy supplier to the European Union (EU) and the EU was Russia’s largest customer” .
If then 60% of Russian crude went to the community bloc and around 40% of the EU gas came from Russia, as a result of the war both have had to “look for New markets for their products”.
Russia has increased its exports to:
While the EU has increased its own, mainly through USAwhile buying more oil from Qatar and middle East.
In the aftermath of the war, the EU has banned oil imports by Russian sea since December 5 of last year and petroleum products since February 5.
oil prices
The expert predicted that it is expected that the oil prices remain “elevated” throughout 2023 and approach $90 per barrel by the middle of this year, while production will remain “flat.”
Saldías remarked, on the other hand, that the economic reopening of China will be a “main driving force” for growth economic.
Prices in 2023 and 2024 “will continue to be very high compared to the historical levels“, he observed, although these high prices “will not be passed on to production levels.”
The EUI expects that the real growth of the Chinese GDP accelerate to 5.7% in 2023, driven by a rebound in private consumption.
It was also highlighted in this regard that China continue to absorb Russian oil at a discount price but “without being too dependent”, while the Russian production crude will be affected by the sanctions “although its production has turned out to be much more resilient than expected.”
Nor is it expected that the recovery of China will boost the production of Petroleum globally.
From the talk it was also extracted that “robust growth in the consumption of renewable energy in the next decade, around 10% more on average.
