The Economist Elmer Cuba does not foresee a greater impact on the dollar exchange rate in Peru as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, since the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals function as a shield.
“Peru is very strong. If the Peruvian economy has something, it is its macroeconomic strength, both fiscal, monetary and external. We have macroeconomic shields to avoid worse exchange rate pressures”indicated the Macroconsult partner in dialogue with RPP.
“Whether or not the conflict lasts is important, but everything indicates that it will not last long because the West is letting Ukraine fall and it is a matter of hours before they take power. The strongest effect was yesterday when the conflict began and the dollar moved just a few tenths”he added.
Cuba explained that, in addition to the price of the dollar, the war in Eastern Europe will have two economic impacts on the country, one is the price of oil and the second is the price of grains.
In the first case, he indicated that if Russia cuts fuel supplies to Germany, Germany will look for an alternative source, which would push prices up.
In the second, both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of corn and wheat, which would also push their prices up. In fact, wheat is already at recent record highs.
