The vacancy of Dina Boluarte It would not cause a large-scale economic crisis, although it could generate a temporary pause in public and private investment processes, as well as in business and family decisions, as agreed by economists Elmer Cuba, partner at Macroconsult, and David Tuesta, former Minister of Economy and Finance.
For Cuba, a presidential resignation or dismissal would imply “bad news on several sides,” mainly because the ministries would stop the execution of projects and the signing of contracts in progress. “All the processes that come in the ministries are going to be paused: public-private partnerships, contract signings, etc. That is being delayed,” he said.
The economist explained that this type of situation usually generates a “waiting period” between companies and households, which prefer to postpone decisions until they know who will take over and what profile their cabinet will have. “There is a kind of pause that is resolved quickly, let’s say, in a week, and I hope it is for the better. That it is someone who does not cast fears,” he added.
Cuba recalled that Peru has shown resilience in the face of political instability. “Between 2019 and 2022 there were six presidents and nothing special happened with the dollar or the rest of the country, except with Castillo, because the problem was him, not the political crisis,” he said. In that sense, he ruled out a significant impact on the exchange rate or interest rates, although he did anticipate “a kind of hiatus of one or two months” in economic activity.
Magnitude of impact
The economist also highlighted that the effect will depend largely on the tone and makeup of the new government. “It will depend on who is the president, who is his premier, who is his Minister of the Interior and Economy. If there is poor management in the Interior, crime problems and strikes will continue, and that complicates the picture,” he warned.
In his opinion, the eventual transitional government that would take over after a vacancy would tend towards the center or the center-right, given that citizens today prioritize employment and security. “What is going to take precedence is employment and security. So, this is going to be a transitional government between the center and the center-right,” he stated.
For his part, David Tuesta maintained that these recurring institutional crises are already contemplated within the scenarios with which economic analysts work. “Under normal conditions one might think that this situation will generate a movement in the market, but in a context of institutional deterioration like the one we are experiencing, something like this is already within the expected scenarios,” he indicated.
The former minister added that the markets’ reaction will depend on the profile of whoever assumes the presidency and the formation of the new cabinet. “Depending on who assumes the presidency, we will see what the reaction of investors, the stock market and the sun will be, which has strengthened in recent weeks,” he noted.
Receive your Perú21 by email or WhatsApp. Subscribe to our enriched digital newspaper. Take advantage of the discounts here.
RECOMMENDED VIDEO
