Havana/The possibility of Mexico stopping or reducing oil shipments to Cuba has ceased to be a diplomatic rumor and has become an internal debate in the Government of Claudia Sheinbaum. According to an investigation by Reutersthree high-level sources confirmed that the Mexican Executive is evaluating whether to maintain, reduce or suspend the supply of crude oil to the Island, amid fear of direct retaliation from the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump.
The American digital Political He goes even further by assuring that according to “three sources familiar with the plan”, the White House is considering the option of resorting to the Helms-Burton Act to “impose a total blockade of oil imports by Cuba.” According to one of the sources cited by the media, “energy is the key to killing the regime and this will happen in 2026, with a 100% probability.”
The interruption of Venezuelan shipments, after the forced stoppage of oil tankers in December and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, has left Mexico as the main fuel supplier to a country mired in prolonged blackouts and an energy crisis that worsens every day. “Mexico has become the last lifeline,” acknowledged one of the sources cited by Reuters, when describing the impact that any change in that nation’s oil policy would have.
Beyond the geopolitical calculations, the impact is already being felt in the streets of Havana. A private carrier consulted by 14ymedio describes a scene that is repeated in different parts of the capital: “Yesterday, of all the gas stations I saw, there was only a line at the one on Vía Blanca, because it is the one assigned by the Government. None of the three in Guanabacoa had fuel.”
Although President Sheinbaum has publicly defended the shipments as “humanitarian aid” and part of long-term contracts, concern is growing within her cabinet about the political cost of this endeavor. “There is a real fear of antagonizing Trump just when Mexico needs room for negotiation with Washington,” said another official consulted by the agency.
The cost of challenging Trump could be too high at a time of maximum bilateral tension
That margin is crucial. Mexico seeks to renegotiate aspects of the T-MEC trade agreement with the United States and Canada and, at the same time, convince Washington that it is acting firmly against drug trafficking cartels. In this context, the oil that reaches Cuba has become an uncomfortable element. Trump has been explicit: in a message published on his Truth Social network on January 11, he assured that there would be “no more oil or money for Cuba.” For several members of the Mexican cabinet, those words are a direct warning.
According to Reuters, the matter was even addressed in a recent phone call between Trump and Sheinbaum. Two sources indicated that the US president asked directly about crude oil shipments and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico. Sheinbaum’s response was to insist on the humanitarian nature of oil and the legality of the health agreement. Trump, the sources add, did not explicitly demand the suspension, but made his displeasure clear.
Officials consulted by Reuters expressed concern about the growing presence of US Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico. Flight tracking data, released by local media, show at least a dozen Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drone missions over the Bay of Campeche, following routes similar to those of tankers transporting Mexican fuel to Cuba. “It’s impossible not to read that as a message,” one of the sources admitted.
In parallel, Trump has intensified his speech against Mexico, stating that the country is “governed by cartels” and suggesting the possibility of ground attacks. Sheinbaum has offered greater judicial cooperation – including the extradition of almost a hundred drug lords – but also marking a red line against any unilateral military action. “The fear is that a decision on Cuba will be mixed with the issue of security and sovereignty,” another official explained to Reuters.
Within the Mexican Government, the debate is far from resolved. Some voices consider that maintaining supply is a moral obligation and an investment in regional stability. “Cutting off oil could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in Cuba and cause massive migration to Mexico,” warned one of the sources. Others, however, warn that the cost of challenging Trump could be too high at a time of maximum bilateral tension.
The regime clings to its economic and political model while the White House insists that Cuba “fails of its own will”
The data show that the volume sent to Cuba does not affect the Mexican industry. Between January and September of last year, Pemex exported to the Island about 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products per day, worth approximately 400 million dollars. “It is not very crude for Mexico, but vital for Cuba,” Sheinbaum summarized this week when defending that this solidarity “does not have to disappear.”
The lack of fuel not only paralyzes private transportation, but has also dried up the informal market, a traditional escape valve in times of crisis. “My next-door neighbor sells gasoline. I just asked him and he told me he doesn’t have any. I ask him how much it costs and where I can get it. He tells me it’s for pleasure. There isn’t even any on the street,” adds the driver to 14ymedioresigned to a shortage that no longer allows for shortcuts.
The lack of electricity has turned bakeries with power plants into one of the few regular food supply points. “You have to see how the bakeries are at night. It’s the only thing there to eat, and because they have a plant,” he explains. Bread, often hard and rationed, has become the last guarantee against blackouts and shortages.
In Cuban neighborhoods, the wait is not measured in barrels or millions of dollars, but in hours in line, nights without light and increasingly empty tables. The regime clings to its economic and political model while the White House insists that Cuba “fails of its own volition” and insists that the country should “reach an agreement before it is too late.”
