Ukraine owes Russia billions of dollars for gas supplies. Half of the gas that flows to Europe passes through Ukraine. There are three pro-Russian provinces in Ukraine that want to become independent. Putin opposes Ukraine building its future close to Europe.
Of all the diplomatic tussle between the United States, the European Union, NATO and Russia over the bone of contention that Ukraine has become, there was an expression of President Biden when his subconscious betrayed him and said: “One thing is that try a minor incursion and that we end up arguing about what to do and what not to do”.
It means that from your point of view a minor incursion might be acceptable. Given this, he received the rejection of European countries and the government of Ukraine, which led him to rectify.
Ukraine owes Russia billions of dollars for gas supplies. Half of the gas that flows to Europe passes through Ukraine. There are three pro-Russian provinces in Ukraine that want to become independent. Putin opposes Ukraine building its future close to Europe.
The United States has supplied Ukraine with $2 billion worth of war material and is willing to send 8,500 troops. NATO decided to reinforce Ukraine’s eastern flank by land and sea. It also has battalions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Denmark offered a frigate in the Baltic Sea and warplanes. The Netherlands has put its warplanes on alert in Bulgaria. Spain supports Ukraine with three warships and a hunting detachment. Germany offers a field hospital valued at 5 million euros.
The European Union announced a financial aid package to Ukraine of 1.2 billion euros, in addition to the 17 billion euros in credits channeled since the invasion of Crimea. It also contemplates a long-term program to support the modernization of the country.
On the Russian side there are 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine waiting for the order to invade.
What gives Putin the status of an excellent political strategist? Essentially the dependence of European countries on 40% of the gas and 26% of the oil they consume and which comes from Russia. But in addition, Putin as an expert in espionage and the Cold War has developed a cybernetic capacity for global intervention to influence the elections of the countries and have networks of disinformation and manipulation. Russia possesses nuclear weapons and is one of the five members of the UN Security Council.
Russia has a GDP equivalent to 40% of Germany’s. Its life expectancy is in position 163, behind Honduras. Per capita income is in position 73. The country has de-industrialized and most of its exports come from natural resources.
Putin does not want the United States, the European Union and NATO to make decisions that affect the security of his country. THE Kremlin wants NATO to withdraw its troops from Eastern Europe and ban Ukraine from NATO membership. For their part, the United States, the European Union and NATO do not want to repeat the experience of the annexation of Crimea, absorbing the pro-Russian area that is in Ukraine.
Putin has declared: “the disappearance of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”. And I would like to return to the Great Russia of the XIX century. He boldly takes on dangerous moves, negotiates with Biden, with Macron, with members of the European Parliament, but sees no reason for optimism. He fears sanctions from the West.
Economist
Economy and Society
Writer and graduate in economics, graduated from the National Autonomous University of Mexico. From 1984 to 1990 he was the Mexican ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark, where he was decorated with the Dannebrog order.
