According to the document, there are four fundamental issues for Latin America that are in the Strategy: stopping immigration to the north, increasing the US military presence in the region, the US exercise of commercial or economic diplomacy and the containment of the Chinese presence.
Regarding the section on stopping immigration to the north, titled “The era of massive arrival of people is over,” the Observatory says that it is one of the objectives that Trump has practically already achieved.
“Currently, the entry of people without documents through the southern border is practically non-existent and has been achieved with deportations, but also with agreements with nations that have agreed to be safe third countries,” he points out.
Now in the years to come “a tougher regionalization of immigration management will be observed. The United States will seek to externalize asylum through more third country type agreements, with quotas, metrics and conditional financing for nations that agree to process cases outside of US territory,” he indicates.
“Containing immigration is even more important than facing geopolitical threats, according to the strategy,” and that is why Trump is expected to maintain conditions and pressure.
In terms of military presence on the continent, the NSS proposes reconsidering the United States military presence in the region through various actions: readjusting deployments in other areas to face threats in the hemisphere, expanding the presence of the Coast Guard and the Navy to monitor routes.
This has already been seen with attacks against alleged drug transporters in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific.
Now what is coming is an increase in US coercion in the region with a focus on safeguarding its “national security,” says the Observatory.
“More exercises, sales of weapons and intelligence to allied countries are anticipated, as well as conditions of cooperation with distant nations that have similar interests. Pressure is expected to increase on the countries of the hemisphere to undertake joint operations and accept a greater US presence in key seas and ports,” he adds.
Regarding economic or commercial diplomacy, the strategy “prioritizes the use of tariffs, reciprocal agreements and government purchases to shore up the United States industrial base and, at the same time, boost partner economies,” says the Observatory.
The US Strategy proposes supporting hemispheric supply chains to reduce dependencies on other regions.
“A novel element of the document is that it orders embassies to be turned into promoters to identify key contracts and support American companies,” highlights the Observatory.
“The SNN clearly reflects the tightening of tariffs towards key partners to advance the national interests of the United States. On the one hand, it seeks to stop the triangulation of Asian goods to North America. In the case of Mexico, our country has an intense commercial relationship with China, with an imbalance in the balance in favor of the Asian power, which the Mexican authorities seek to redirect. The Trump Administration has indicated that it intends to prevent China from using countries like ours as a springboard,” he adds.
Regarding the influence of China, the study mentions that although the issue is not central, it is contemplated, as it is part of the “Trump Corollary”, according to which it rejects the intervention of extrahemispheric actors, so the United States “conditions alliances, aid and access to financing on countries reducing the influence of the Asian power.”
“Unlike the Monroe Doctrine that demanded ceasing operations or avoiding the presence of foreign powers in decline, now the powerful country to confront is China, which already has extensive participation in the region in the form of investments, trade or credits,” says the Observatory.
In Latin America “there will be greater pressure to exclude Chinese suppliers in sensitive sectors such as 5G, as well as contracts in ports, energy and data. Tenders with de facto vetoes, contractual reviews and greater pressure to align are anticipated,” he adds.
In exchange, the reduction of the Chinese footprint in sectors considered sensitive could receive preferential treatment from the United States.
Regarding other regions, such as the Asia-Pacific, the strategy seeks, the document indicates, “to win the economic future” and avoid a military confrontation.
“It proposes rebalancing the relationship with China with commercial reciprocity, control of critical chains and combating predatory practices, theft of intellectual property and reshipping via third parties.”
In the Middle East the priority is to avoid “eternal wars” and in relation to Europe, the US distances itself, because according to the NSS, it neglected “Western” values, is experiencing a “loss of national identities” due to immigration and the “fall in birth rates”, hence the economic stagnation, military weakness and the “civilizational destruction” of Europe.
Furthermore, the Trump government “considers that the European Union (EU) regulation of American technology companies is an attack on its interests” and among other actions it plans to seek to weaken European progressive parties and favor the far right.
