The United States manufacturing industry is concentrated in a small business base. The data indicates that of 238,851 companies in the sector, only 3,920 exceeded 500 employees.
Meanwhile, three out of four had less than 20 workers and 93.4% do not exceed 100.
The NAM insists that a strong manufacturing base needs stable commercial policies. Producing in the United States only makes sense if products reach global markets.
The T-MEC changed the map. He reduced exposure to China and approached supplies from Mexico and Canada. Today, one third of the key components comes from these partners. But political volatility threatens that balance.
Trump promises to reverse the loss of 90,000 factories since the signing of NAFTA, the accusations of the theft of industries and jobs extend to China. Given this, it proposes a tariff offensive as an engine of the industrial rebirth.
Trump’s idea unleashed a wave of satires on social networks. Users recreated, with artificial intelligence, dystopian scenes of US officials and population enslaved in factories.
The Fraser Institute warns that a wave of investment, without the support of workforce, can collapse under its own weight.
Jock Finlayson, main researcher of the institute, recalls that much of the debate revolves around employment. The manufacturing industry lost dynamism since the 90s and played background in 2010. Since 2015, it shows a slight recovery. But the historical comparison reveals the magnitude of the setback: in the 70s, one in three workers was part of the sector. Today, only one in 12.
Even so, the United States is the second country in the world with the highest volume of industrial production, with a 16.8%participation, only behind China, which has 28.7%, according to figures from the United Nations Organization for Industrial Development.
The United States Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, says that the country focuses on a major process: the construction of factories worth billions inside and, although many will be automated, the essential thing is who builds them, who operates them, who guarantees their operation. The answer is US workers.
It is not about replacing millions of people, but about transforming their work. Before, millions of people pressed screws to assemble iPhones. That type of activity returns to the United States, but with automation.
The demographic bonus fades
In 2023, the birth rate was 10.68 births per 1,000 inhabitants, and the fertility rate was 1,617 births per woman, a historical minimum.
Population aging aggravates the shortage of labor. By 2034, those over 65 will exceed for the first time those under 18. All Baby Boomers will enter the elderly. One in five citizens will live in retirement age.
The industry seeks replacements. The alliance for American manufacturing (AAM) points out that 27 % of generation Z is willing to work in the sector. Although low, the figure exceeds the interest registered among millennials. Even so, the challenge persists.
According to a NAM survey, seven out of 10 manufacturers identify the lack of talent as the main brake to grow. The main magazines in the sector coincide: the shortage of technical skills worsens while the government announces a new industrial investment cycle.
Migrants, key piece in check
Immigration offers a break. In March, the Institute of Migration Policies (MPI) revealed that, for the first time in 175 years, population growth was completely explained from the entry of migrants. Between 2022 and 2023, the country did not register net in birth.
Migrants already total 47.8 million. They represent 14.3 % of the population, but occupy 18 % of jobs. Its presence compensates for work aging and holds critical sectors.
The Government, however, hardens immigration control. Since January 2025, the authorities deported more than 100,000 people and arrested 113,000 more. All expect to be expelled.
Trump faces a structural contradiction: he wants more factories, but closes the door to those who can operate them.
