The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States on the eve of the G20 leaders’ summit brings uncertainty about the fulfillment of the decisions that will be agreed between the largest economies in the world, according to experts interviewed by Brazil Agency. Throughout the last administration, Trump did not prioritize spaces for international discussion and even went so far as to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement about climate change.
The G20 Summit represents the conclusion of the work carried out by the country that holds the rotating presidency of the group, which this year is Brazil. It is the moment when heads of state and government approve the agreements negotiated throughout the year and point out ways to deal with global challenges. The Summit will be on November 18th and 19th, in Rio de Janeiro.
Despite still occurring under the North American presidency of Joe Biden, the agreements signed must be fulfilled by the country under the leadership of Trump. “This is something that worries the entire world because the United States economy is still the largest in the world,” says researcher Vitelio Brustolin, from Harvard University. According to him, proposals that are being discussed by the G20 as proposals for the environment, fight against hunger and taxation of great fortunes“with Trump’s victory, they are emptied”, he says.
According to the researcher, Trump has an isolationist profile, putting the United States first, not valuing multilateral international spaces such as the G20 and even failing to comply with international agreements, as was the case, in 2017, with the Paris Agreement. “So, how do you talk about commitments at an event like this when Trump’s record is not one of maintaining this type of commitment?”, he asks.
Biden’s participation
Given this scenario of possible emptying, the tone of Joe Biden’s participation in the meeting is uncertain, according to experts. According to Associate Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Strategic Studies at the Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) Márcio José Melo Malta, the meeting could be an opportunity for Joe Biden to leave a legacy.
“It would be a great opportunity for Biden, at the end of his term, from a legacy perspective. A great opportunity to try to end the mandate with a flourish and praise the role of the G20”, he says.
Leonardo Neves, researcher at FGV’s International Intelligence Center and professor of International Relations at Ibmec, adds: “It is not clear whether the Biden government will make commitments or try to move forward in a debate as it knows that, very possibly, or rather, almost that, in two months from now, the government will belong to the candidate for president-elect Donald Trump. So, consequently, he would undo everything”, he says and adds: “I don’t think it will effectively traumatize the G20, but we will wait and see what the level of engagement of the American government will be in this context. Whether he will seek support to try to embarrass Trump or whether he will effectively take his foot off the gas.”
Discussions are not lost
Despite the uncertain scenario with Trump’s election, professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj) Lia Valls does not believe that the discussions that have been held so far will be lost.
“A Trump government has important impacts, without a doubt. But, at least, it will be possible to show where we have reached, the convergence on several issues. Furthermore, all the conversations that took place at the civil society level during that time will not be lost either”, he argues.
The G20 agenda is extensive. Working group meetings, ministerial meetings and several bilateral meetings were held throughout the year.
Valls also explains that the G20 is a forum where convergence is sought between the largest economies in the world, but it is not a deliberative space or an international legal body.
In this way, what will be signed between the countries will be the commitment to pursue certain common objectives: “The G20 is a forum where the exchange of ideas and the construction of convergence between countries are important. The idea is that there is this commitment. However, it is not a formal commitment to sign something from an international legal body, but it signals that country’s desire to pursue certain objectives”.
Trump’s election should also impact the group’s future discussions. In 2026, the United States will host the G20 meetings, shortly after South Africa, in 2025. “How will Trump commit to a G20 agenda, which requires convergence, discussions. Will he carry it through? Maybe yes, but with what flag?”, he asks.
Each country that presides over the group can select the motto for the discussions. For Brazil’s presidency of the G20, the priorities are: social inclusion and the fight against hunger and poverty; the promotion of sustainable development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions and energy transitions; and reform of global governance institutions, including the United Nations and multilateral development banks. “Trump certainly won’t have an agenda like that,” comments the professor.
G20
The Group of Twenty (G20) is the main forum for international economic cooperation. It is made up of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States, in addition to European Union.
G20 members represent around 85% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced by a country), more than 75% of global trade and around two-thirds of the world’s population.
Since 2008, countries have taken turns holding the presidency. This is the first time that Brazil presides over the G20 in its current format.
*Vitor Abdala collaborated
