OPEC
In the event that oil exporting countries, headed by Saudi Arabia, pay attention to Trump’s request, the barrel price could fall.
However, “OPEC is likely to evaluate Trump’s demands based on its own economic and market objectives. In addition, the relationship between the US and some members of the OPEC, such as Saudi Arabia, is complex and influenced by geopolitical considerations that go beyond the oil market, ”FEMAT recalled.
“Although OPEC could be willing to dialogue, it is unlikely to make significant changes in its production policy only in response to Trump’s demands. Its objective has been trying to maintain the price of barrel of oil in a range of 80 to 100 American dollars per barrel and is currently close to the lower limit, ”he added.
Analysts consider it unlikely that there is a decrease in the price of oil.
In the case of a fall, this could be between 15% and 30%, estimated Carlos Ochoa.
Matías Osorio said: “We are going to have volatility” and the price of the barrel could reach up to 65 dollars. He stressed that the cost of production for large oil companies is $ 35, while for mediums it is $ 50.
And Mexican oil?
For the Mexican export mixing, price linked to the international market, if Trump’s policies include an international price reduction, and the national hydrocarbon will also do.
“Mexico is a net oil exporter, therefore, a decrease in prices could negatively affect the country’s income from oil exports,” said José Carlos Femat.
“In addition, the Mexican economy is highly linked to that of the United States, so Trump’s energy and commercial policies could have significant repercussions on the Mexican energy sector,” he added.
The Mexican government, in the National Financing Plan 2025, includes a diversification of portfolio and risk management with the coverage program with derived financial instruments.
The above to mitigate financial volatility due to variations in oil prices. In the National Financing Plan of that year, oil coverage is not detailed, but they are activated when the price is placed below the estimate of the Ministry of Finance.
For this year, the estimate is $ 57.8 per barrel of oil with an exchange rate at 18.7 pesos per dollar and an average production platform of 1,891 million barrels per day.
The effect of an additional dollar on the price of crude oil on oil revenues is an increase of 13.1 billion pesos for more crude oil exports. So by a smaller dollar in its average price it would mean an equal loss for public finances.
In addition, an appreciation of 20 cents in the average exchange rate reduces oil revenues by 8.3 billion pesos. And the effect of an increase of 50,000 barrels per day of oil extraction on oil revenues is 18.7 billion pesos.
With information from Dainzú Patiño and AFP
