The specialist stressed that rates have an ambiguous effect on inflation in Mexico: on the one hand, the weight is depreciated and that eventually causes more inflation; On the other hand, it causes economic activity in Mexico to slow down, which would have to help inflation slow down.
The economist explained that in the last data, the inflation of merchandise began to rise and was the one that was helping inflation to contain.
He added that many of the goods in Mexico are imported and from the presidential election the weight has depreciated more than 20%, which will be reflected in the inflation of goods.
If even if Trump imposes tariffs and Bank of Mexico decide to cut the rate, there will be a depreciation of the weight, inflation would shoot and eventually the Central Bank would have to raise the rate again.
Bank of America Securities hopes that for the end of the year, Banco de México locates the rate at 8.75% and that economic growth is 0.8%.
