The president of the United States, Donald Trump, told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, who reaches an agreement to End the war in Ukraine “now” or will face tariffs and sanctions.
“If we do not make a ‘treatment’, and soon, I have no choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on any good sold by Russia to the United States” and other countries, Trump warned in his social truth network.
From the Russian invasion to Ukraine in February 2022, the US government has imposed various sanctions, including commercial restrictions, which prohibit the importation of certain goods, mainly oil and gas. However, these measures have failed to stop the conflict between Vladimir Putin and Volodimir Zelenski.
However, there is a decrease in trade between the United States and Russia, especially in imports. In 2021, a year before the war, the United States bought goods from Russia for a value of 29,638 million dollars, while in 2017 this figure was 14,437 million.
By 2023, the fall was even more pronounced, with imports of just 4,571 million dollars.
“It is not clear how Trump can press Russia with tariffs, because bilateral trade was never very high, and has fallen substantially since the invasion of Ukraine three years ago,” said Lucian Kim, a senior analyst of Ukraine of the International Crisi Group.
What do Trump look for?
The interests that the new US president has to intervene in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are uncertain.
Tariffs have resulted in the “best weapon” so that Donald Trump can negotiate issues related to politics and geopolitics. “According to him, it is the perfect formula to force countries to be bent,” said Aribel Contreras, coordinator of the Global Business Bachelor of the Ibero -American University.
“What Trump actually seeks is to take to the negotiating table to Russia and Ukraine. He is interested in fulfilling his campaign promise. Making prospective, I think that once the conflict is resolved and advances to a second and third phase in the conflict in the Middle East, he will want to nominate the Nobel Peace Prize. There is a personal ego issue, but it is a more geopolitical issue, ”he added.
It is not consistent that you want to impose tariffs on Russia, when the country was already economically sanctioned by the conflict with Ukraine. “We do not know what the interests or exchanges that could sustain these countries are,” said Turenna Ramírez, leader of the Customs International Trade and Regulatory area of Holland & Knight.
“Trump’s threats are not going to impress Vladimir Putin, not in the way Mexicans or Canadians have been. However, EU can harden the sanctions for exports of Russian raw materials and enforce the existing ones, ”said Kim.
The analysts agreed to remember that Donald Trump has presumed to have a good relationship with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, so they do not rule out that Trump seeks to stop supporting Ukraine, as former President Joe Biden did.
For Putin it would be a great achievement that the United States would no longer support Ukraine with defensive armament, ”said Turnna Ramírez.
“Donald Trump does not want to continue supporting Ukraine,” said Ramses Pech, an energy and economy industry analyst in Caraiva and Associates-Leon & Pech Architects. “Trump has a mentality of doing business,” so along with tariffs, he has announced measures to collect less taxes and other incentives to attract companies to the United States, he added.
