The tensions between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell They cried this week when the president from the United States threatened to dismiss the head of the Federal Reserve (Fed), a measure that would imply questioning independence of the Central Bank United States.
Even before his tariff commercial warfare hit the economy United Statesthe republican president insisted that the Fed Top your interest rates to boost growth.
But the determination of Powell To make the decision in his own time, the frustration of the president. The White House and the Fed They entered a conflict Open that threatens to destabilize the markets Financialaccording to several analysts.
“If I want him to leave, he will leave very fast, believe me,” he warned on Thursday Trump in reference to Powellwhose second term concludes in May 2026.
For its part, the president of the Fed ruled out to leave his position in advance and this week recalled that the independence of the Central Bank United States It is “guaranteed by law.”
“Clearly, the fact that president of the Fed It has to talk about the issue means that they are serious “White House threats, KPMG’s chief economist told AFP, Diane Swonk.
For most experts in the area, the general increase in duty that drives Trump could, at least in the short termdecelerate the growth of economy and increase prices.
In addition, the goal of the Fed to achieve annual 2%inflation, which would force high interest rates for longer.
“They will enter conflict“Wolfe Research’s chief economist estimated Stephanie Roth. But she ruled out that the Fed “go succumb to the pressure policy”.
“They will not react because Trump He posted a message demanding “lowering the rates, said the analyst. If they did” it would be the recipe for a disaster. “
– The independence It is “essential” –
Most analysts agree that the Republican tycoon does not have the legal power to dismiss the head of the Fed nor to any of the main members of the monetary authority.
Created more than a century ago, the Fed It was organized in such a way that it is protected from political influences and the power of nomination of the president It is limited to some positions and requires the confirmation of the Senate.
“The independence It is absolutely essential for Fed. Countries that do not have a central bank independent They have remarkably weaker coins and notoriously higher interest rates, “Roth recalled.
A serious threat to the Fed It could arrive through an ongoing judicial process before the Supreme Court. The government of Trump wants to challenge a jurisprudence of 1935 that prevents president of the United States to fire the chiefs of independent government agencies.
But even, succeeding in such a cause, the White House should face a last Justice of the Peace: the market of Bonds.
Uncertainty in markets
During the recent turbulence in the markets caused by the war of duty of Trumppublic debt yields United States They shot and the dollar fell, indicating that investors could stop seeing the United States as the capital refuge that once was.
This unexpected movement prompted Trump to suspend an important part of the dutygiving a breath to markets Financial.
Yes Investors They perceive that the ability of the Fed to act with independence Against the advance of inflation, the debt risk premium United States would rise again, subjecting the administration of Trump to new pressures.
“The market of Bonds. And that is the moral of history. That’s why you want a Fed independent“The analyst Diane Swonk insisted.
