Former President Donald Trump’s political prospects could be shaken in a solidly Republican state with a significant number of Electoral College votes if current polling trends remain consistent.
Magazine Newsweek irecently reported that the election in Florida may begin to tip in favor of President Biden, who now enjoys the support of a plurality of women in the so-called Sunshine State. A FOX 13/Insider Advantage poll of 800 Floridians conducted July 15-16 found that 47% of women preferred Biden and 44% preferred Trump.
However, Trump’s lead in Florida among male voters remains significant: he leads Biden by a 57-38 margin among men.
Still, on average, women have outnumbered men in voter turnout across nearly every demographic group, meaning women could decide who wins Florida’s 30 electoral votes in November.
Democratic National Committee puts up billboards in Florida about Trump and abortion rights
The poll of Florida voters also found Biden to be the strongest candidate to take on Trump in November.
While some Democrats are pushing him to drop out of the race, the most likely choice to replace him is Vice President Kamala Harris. That poll found Trump’s slim lead over Biden among Florida voters growing to double digits if Harris is the nominee.
Trump also regains the lead among female voters if Harris appears on the ballot instead of Biden.
Even though Florida has a Republican-dominated legislature and elected far-right Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to two terms, the state remains competitive in federal elections.
In 2020, Biden won Florida’s female voters by 51% to Trump’s 48%. Trump won among men by a 54-45 margin and carried the state by three points.
However, 2024 may be an even closer race in Florida, given that voters will have the chance to weigh in on abortion rights. So far, the issue has been successful on every statewide ballot question since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe decision. v. Wade of 1973.
Abortion was even a winning issue in states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana in the 2022 midterm elections, and it scored another big win in Ohio last year.
If Floridians turn out in large numbers in favor of the abortion ballot initiative, women are likely to lead the charge, given that they will have a direct say in their own reproductive rights.
This could influence not only the presidential race, but also a highly competitive race for the US Senate.
