Havana/The president of the United States, Donald Trump, assured this Saturday that Cuba will end up seeking a “deal” with Washington after the tightening of sanctions against countries that supply oil to the Island, and affirmed that this process would allow the country to “be free again.” The statements, made aboard Air Force One, confirm a strategy of direct pressure on a regime incapable of sustaining its energy system without external help.
“There doesn’t have to be a humanitarian crisis,” Trump said when asked about the warning from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who warned about the social impact of a supply cut. “I think they will probably come to us and want to make a deal. So Cuba will be free again,” added the president, convinced that the seriousness of the situation and common sense will force Havana to sit down to negotiate.
Trump went further when describing the current state of the country. “Cuba is going to collapse quite soon. Cuba is really a nation that is very close to collapsing,” he stated, in an assessment that coincides with daily evidence: prolonged blackouts, paralyzed transportation, industries stopped and hospitals operating at their limit. However, the Cuban Government insists on the rhetoric of “heroism” and the “square under siege.” President Miguel Díaz-Canel speaks of peace and dialogue, but “without concessions.”
“Cuba lived for many years on large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela… but not anymore”
On Thursday, the White House formalized its offensive with the signing of an executive order imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. The measure seeks to close the regime’s last energy supply channels and increase the political and economic cost for its allies. Trump made it clear that this is not a symbolic warning. “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba – zero! – I strongly suggest that you make a deal, before it is too late,” the president wrote on his Truth Social social network.
In that same message, the president stressed the structural dependence on Castroism. “Cuba lived for many years on large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela… but not anymore,” he stated. The national economy was never self-sufficient and was sustained, first, by Soviet subsidies and, later, by Venezuelan support.
Trump insisted that the Island is in a “very bad” situation because that flow of resources has been interrupted. The collapse of the Chavista model and international pressure on Caracas have drastically reduced the shipment of subsidized crude oil, exposing the fragility of the energy system Cuban.
The opacity of the Cuban Government makes it impossible to know if it is willing to negotiate or if, once again, it will choose to cling to the rhetoric of resistance
The US president also referred to Mexico, stating that Sheinbaum was “very good” and that he asked his country to stop sending oil to Cuba. Although the Mexican Government has insisted that its aid is based on “humanitarian” reasons, it has recognized diplomatic contacts with Washington and the search for “alternatives” to support the Cuban people without exposing themselves to sanctions.
From Havana, Díaz-Canel described the measure as “fascist” and denounced an alleged attempt to provoke a deliberate crisis. But the resource sounds spent again. After more than six decades of invoking the “blockade” as an automatic explanation for all failures, the regime has emptied the word of its effect and credibility. As in the story of the shepherd who cried “the wolf is coming,” now that the fence is finally tightening, the alarm no longer causes international impact.
Blackouts have become the most obvious symbol of the system’s failure. At times of greatest demand, more than half of the country is left in the dark. The Government manages the shortage with “scheduled” cuts that paralyze daily life and deepen social discontent, while continuing to blame the embargo for all evils and avoiding accountability for its own management.
Trump’s bet is to use economic pressure to force a change in the regime’s behavior. The opacity of the Cuban Government makes it impossible to know if it is willing to negotiate or if, once again, it will choose to cling to the rhetoric of resistance, transferring the cost of the crisis to the population rather than give up power or introduce real reforms.
